01
November
NCAA Football Opening Line Report – Week 10
11/01/2011
Every Tuesday, we take a look at the early line movement and college football betting trends for the 15 most heavily bet games, in terms of the number of total bets.
| Team | Betting % | Current | Open | Notes |
| LSU | 67% | 5.0 | 5.0 | No line movement thus far for Saturday night’s “Game of the Century” between college football’s two best teams. With #2 ‘Bama playing at home in this SEC showdown, Nick Saban’s bunch enters as slight favorites. However, nearly seven out of ten spread bets are taking the points and banking on #1 LSU to either win straight up or lose by four or less at Bryant-Denny Stadium. |
| Alabama | 33% | -5.0 | -5.0 | |
| Northern Illinois | 34% | 8.5 | 7.5 | Lone Tuesday night matchup between 5-3 teams puts the little-known MAC Conference in national spotlight. With the public heavily in favor of Toledo at home, the sportsbooks have adjusted their lines to give road dog No. Illinois an additional point. |
| Toledo | 66% | -8.5 | -7.5 | |
| Texas A&M | 11% | 13.5 | 14.0 | After a heartbreaking loss to Texas Tech knocked them out of the national title conversation, the #6 Sooners rebounded on the road last week to pin a resounding 58-17 loss on then #8 Kansas State. With the 5-3 Aggies coming off a 38-31 loss to unranked Missouri, the public is pounding Bob Stoops’ 7-1 Sooners in one of the most lopsided games of the week, especially after the sportsbooks adjusted their lines to take a pivotal half-point away from visiting A&M. |
| Oklahoma | 89% | -13.5 | -14.0 | |
| Missouri | 50% | 2.5 | 0.0 | Great value here, with the public evenly split down the middle as to who to take in this Big 12 matchup. After opening as a pick-em, the sportsbooks have adjusted their lines to make 4-3 Baylor a two-and-a-half point favorite at home. However, following a 59-24 trouncing against then #3 Oklahoma State last week, the Bears’ bandwagon has gotten a whole lot lighter. Keep in mind that 4-4 Missouri is coming off a thrilling 38-31 overtime win against then #16 Texas A&M last week. |
| Baylor | 50% | -2.5 | 0.0 | |
| Florida State | 70% | -14.5 | -15.5 | The 2-6 Eagles ended a three game losing streak last week when they took down Maryland on the road 28-17. However, it doesn’t get any easier as BC must now face a 5-3 Seminoles team coming off a 34-0 shellacking of NC State. With the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to take an additional point away from home dog BC, the betting public is pounding FSU, with seven out of ten spread wagers confident the ‘Noles can win by at least 15 points at Alumni Stadium. |
| Boston College | 30% | 14.5 | 15.5 | |
| USC | 79% | -21.0 | -21.5 | Despite losing 56-48 in triple OT against then #6 Stanford last week, Lane Kiffin’s bunch have catapulted themselves into the national spotlight and quickly become a public darling. Facing a 1-8 Colorado team that has lost six games in a row, the public is hammering Matt Barkley and the 6-2 Trojans to win in a laugher, especially after the sportsbooks took a valuable half-point away from the home dog Buffalos. |
| Colorado | 21% | 21.0 | 21.5 | |
| Kansas | 20% | 14.0 | 14.5 | Coming off a 43-0 pounding against then #24 Texas, the 2-6 Jayhawks enter this Big 12 matchup losers of six in a row after starting the year 2-0. Conversely, the 4-4 Cyclones are riding high after upending then #20 Texas Tech 41-7 last week. As a result, eight out of ten spread bets are taking Iowa State to win by at least 15 at home, especially after the sportsbooks have adjusted their lines to take a big half-point away from road dog Kansas. |
| Iowa State | 80% | -14.0 | -14.5 | |
| Stanford | 84% | -20.5 | -20.5 | The 8-0 Cardinal jumped up to the #4 overall ranking and kept their national titles hopes alive thanks to their thrilling triple OT win against upstart USC last week. Facing a 2-6 Oregon State squad with one of the worst rushing attacks in the nation, the public is pounding Andrew Luck and Co. to win by at least three TDs against the lowly Beavers. |
| Oregon State | 16% | 20.5 | 20.5 | |
| South Carolina | 18% | 4.5 | 5.0 | Aside from LSU/Alabama, this matchup could go down as the silver medal game of the week. Despite boasting a 7-1 record and #9 overall ranking, the Gamecocks travel to Razorback Stadium as the underdog. With the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to take a valuable half point away from Steve Spurrier’s club, more than eight out of ten spread bets are taking #7 Arkansas to win by at least five at home. |
| Arkansas | 82% | -4.5 | -5.0 | |
| Oregon | 77% | -16.5 | -15.5 | The 7-1 Ducks, ranked 8th overall in the country, will be put to the test here against a 6-2 Huskies team who has won four of their last five games. However, even with the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to give home dog Washington an additional point, the betting public is sticking with Oregon, with nearly eight out of ten spread bets confident the Ducks will escape Husky Stadium with at least a 17 point victory. |
| Washington | 23% | 16.5 | 15.5 | |
| Arizona State | 82% | -9.5 | -10.0 | The 6-2 Sun Devils have jumped up to 19th overall in the latest rankings and possess a scoring offense and defense that are both ranked in the top 30. With the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to take a valuable half point away from home dog UCLA, more than eight out of ten spread bets are confident that well-rounded Arizona State can pin a 10 point or more loss on the 4-4 Bruins in this Pac-12 showdown. |
| UCLA | 18% | 9.5 | 10.0 | |
| Michigan | 69% | -4.0 | -4.5 | After suffering a 28-14 loss to then #23 Michigan State two weeks ago, the 7-1 Wolverines rebounded to take down Purdue 36-14 last week to jump up to #15 in the latest rankings. With unranked Iowa coming off a disappointing loss to lowly Minnesota, nearly seven out of ten spread bets are banking on Denard Robinson to lead Michigan to a five point win or more at Kinnick Stadium. |
| Iowa | 31% | 4.0 | 4.5 | |
| Boise State | 79% | -41.0 | -42.0 | The #5 Broncos are no stranger to large spreads and this week is no different. Facing a 2-5 UNLV squad with one of the worst statistical defenses in the country, nearly eight out of ten spread bets are sticking with Kellen Moore and 7-0 Boise State to obliterate the Rebels by at least 42 points. |
| UNLV | 21% | 41.0 | 42.0 | |
| Vanderbilt | 40% | 13.5 | 10.5 | After starting off 4-0, the Gators have now lost four in a row- all against ranked teams. This trend should end with the 4-4 unranked Commodores coming to the Swamp, however the betting public is not overwhelmingly in favor of a Florida blowout, with just six out of ten bets sticking with the Gators to win by 14 points or more. |
| Florida | 60% | -13.5 | -10.5 | |
| Texas Tech | 51% | 11.5 | 10.5 | Great value here, with the public nearly split down the middle as to who to take in this Lone Star state Civil War. Coming off a 43-0 shellacking of lowly Kansas, the #21 Longhorns are understandable favorites at home. However, facing a 5-3 Red Raiders squad who took down Oklahoma two weeks ago has thrown a wrench in the betting public’s psyche. Texas is very likely to pick up the W, but slightly more than half of all spread bets are convinced that Tech will keep in relatively close. |
| Texas | 49% | -11.5 | -10.5 |
* Betting Percentages reflect Sports Insights’ Spread Betting Trends Data
** Opening and Current Lines from Pinnacle
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