NFL 80/20 Betting System 11-5 (68.8%) this Season
As part of our Bet Sharp series of articles, we previously highlighted the 80/20 Rule in regards to NFL betting.
The 80/20 NFL Rule refers to games where a home underdog is receiving 20% or fewer of spread bets (using Sports Insights’ NFL Betting Trends Data).
Our original article showed that through October 24 this NFL season, 12 games fit into the 80/20 system. The home underdogs finished 8-3-1 against the spread (ATS), for a winning percentage of 72.7%.
Since publishing the article, five more games have fallen into the 80/20 level, with the home underdog going 3-2 (60%) against the spread. The table below shows a breakdown of these games:
| Date | Team | Spread % | Closing Line | Score | Result ATS |
| 10/30/11 | Saints | 83% | -13.5 | 21 | Win |
| Rams | 17% | +13.5 | 31 | ||
| 11/06/11 | Falcons | 84% | -6.5 | 31 | Loss |
| Colts | 16% | +6.5 | 7 | ||
| 11/13/11 | Ravens | 83% | -7 | 17 | Win |
| Seahawks | 17% | +7 | 22 | ||
| 11/27/11 | Panthers | 81% | -3.5 | 27 | Loss |
| Colts | 19% | +3.5 | 19 | ||
| 12/04/11 | Cowboys | 80% | -4 | 13 | Win |
| Cardinals | 20% | +4 | 19 |
For the season, home underdogs that fit into the 80/20 NFL Rule are 11-5 (68.8%) against the spread.
Update: There are two Week 14 NFL games that fit this strategy, note how the Titans now fall out of this system:
| Team | Spread % | Current Line * | Open Line * |
| Saints | 74% | -3.5 | -3.5 |
| Titans | 26% | +3.5 | +3.5 |
| Patriots | 84% | -8 | -9 (+100) |
| Redskins | 16% | +8 | +9 (-120) |
| 49ers | 82% | -3.5 (-105) | -4 |
| Cardinals | 18% | +3.5 (-115) | +4 |
* Olympic was used for Open and Current Lines
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