2012 NCAAB Futures from Pinnacle
With the Sweet 16 field set and games scheduled to tip-off Thursday evening, we thought it was be interesting to take a look at the NCAA futures to see which teams are most likely to win the National Championship. Moreover, we wanted to know how the remaining teams title chances compared to their odds prior to the season. The chart below, with data taken from our Propositions, Futures, and Series page, shows the remaining teams odds today versus their pre-season odds from back in October.
2012 NCAA Title Odds from Pinnacle:
| Team | Odds on March 20, 2012 | Odds on October 14, 2011 |
| Kentucky (1) | +226 | +425 |
| Ohio State (2) | +583 | +825 |
| UNC (1) | +639 | +275 |
| Michigan State (1) | +674 | +2800 |
| Kansas (2) | +776 | +2700 |
| Syracuse (1) | +1043 | +1300 |
| Baylor (3) | +1694 | +5000 |
| Florida (7) | +2400 | +1700 |
| Marquette (3) | +2500 | +11000 |
| Louisville (4) | +3296 | +850 |
| Wisconsin (4) | +3825 | +6600 |
| Indiana (4) | +5050 | +3300 |
| Cincinnati (6) | +7500 | N/A |
| NC State (11) | +9000 | +10000 |
| Xavier (10) | +10000 | +9000 |
| Ohio (13) | +20000 | N/A |
One of the most glaring facts is that both Ohio (200:1) and Cincinnati (75:1) were considered part of the field, and did not have individual title odds prior to the season. You can also see that early season Michigan State bettors gained excellent value as the Spartans skyrocketed from +2800 in October to +674 today. For North Carolina, the injury to point guard Kendall Marshall recently sent their title chances plummeting downward. Although the Tar Heels still have the third best title odds, they are no longer the prohibitive favorite.
Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of this future’s list is the devaluation of Florida, Louisville and Indiana. Those three teams saw their championship odds dwindle despite being one of just 16 remaining schools.
The last noteworthy observation concerns the odds of Florida and Marquette. The Gators (24:1) actually have better title odds than the Golden Eagles (25:1) despite being 1.5-point underdogs in Thursday night’s matchup. This may be due to Florida’s ability to shoot the three (nation-leading 328 3-pointers made) which can often times be the great equalizer against superior teams.
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