2016-17 Premier League: Week 38 Betting Preview

2016-17 Premier League: Week 38 Betting Preview

The past week in the Premier League saw no upsets and only 1 draw, and I’m glad I passed on taking any draws for value plays. Both value picks did end up winning, with Southampton +103 and a Tottenham/Man City parlay +115 cashing. Value plays have now earned +14.48 units on the season with an 18% ROI (79 total picks).

Last week also sealed the title for Chelsea, as they won 1-0 at West Brom. Hull City lost again and were officially relegated, joining Middlesbrough and Sunderland. The final week will now be a bit anticlimactic, but there will be a coveted Top-4 finish to be fought for by Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal and there’s still a lot at stake in terms of Top Goalscorer and Season Point Totals.

Week 37 Results:
Arsenal -850 vs. Southampton
Man City -620 vs. West Brom
Man City -443 vs. Leicester
Chelsea -340 vs. Watford
Chelsea -264 at West Brom
Everton -234 vs. Watford
Liverpool -155 at West Ham
Tottenham -150 vs. Manchester United
Arsenal -147 at Stoke
Bournemouth -116 vs. Burnley
Tottenham -112 at Leicester
Crystal Palace -103 vs. Hull
Southampton +112 at Middlesbrough
Swansea +128 at Sunderland
Southampton/Man United Draw +232

Season Trends:
Home: 181 wins of 370 (+30.05 units)
Away: 105 wins of 370 (-78.71 units)
Draw: 84 wins of 370 (-30.26 units)

The final week of any season is difficult to bet, and I’m only taking one value play for Week 38: a moneyline parlay of Arsenal/Man City which pays out -125. Both teams have incentive to win with a Top 4 spot on the line, and neither team is getting a lot of public support. This means that bettors are taking the trendy underdogs of Everton and Watford, even though neither have much to play for on the final day.

Most Lopsided Around Market: 96% on Leicester (-104)

Biggest Line Moves at Pinnacle: Burnley (+148 to +124), Middlesbrough (+2900 to +2300)

Value Plays (+14.48 units, +18.3% ROI): Arsenal/Man City parlay -125

I really hope you enjoyed the weekly previews and feel free to leave any positive or negative feedback in the space below.