Are 50-Point NCAA Football Favorites Smart Bets Historically?
Arkansas recently opened as a whopping 54-point favorite for their season-opener against Florida A&M. Point spreads this large are extremely rare, even for college football. According to our Bet Labs software, only 20 teams have closed as larger favorites than the Razorbacks’ current number of -54 since the start of the 2005 season.
Here’s a quick summary of how large college football favorites have performed over the past 17 seasons:
| Favorites | ATS Record | ATS % | Units Won | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ Points | 19-24 | 44.2% | -6.30 units | -14.7% |
| 54+ Points | 8-14 | 36.4% | -6.48 units | -29.5% |
| 55+ Points | 6-9 | 40.0% | -3.35 units | -22.3% |
*Closing spreads from Pinnacle
As the data above indicates, laying the points with favorites of this magnitude has not been a profitable strategy. However, the sample size is extremely small and not something that should be solely relied on when making wagers.
Will bettors grab Florida A&M and the points or hammer the favorite and drive this line up even further? For updated real-time odds and betting percentages for all of this week’s college football action, please visit our Free Live College Football Odds Page.
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