2012-13 College Basketball and Betting Against the Public
The 2012-13 college basketball season is in full-swing and, using our Bet Labs software, we’ve updated our analysis on the performance of betting against the public.
Our analysis includes closing lines from Pinnacle and College Basketball Betting Trends since the start of the 2008 season (over 14,000 games).
In previous research, we noticed a slight bias towards visiting underdogs when betting against the public in college basketball.
The table below shows the against the spread (ATS) record at specific betting percentage levels when betting on only visiting underdogs.
Table 1: College Basketball Visiting Underdogs and Betting Against the Public
| Betting Percentage | ATS Record | ATS Win Percentage |
| 40% | 2646-2540 | 51.0% |
| 35% | 1920-1864 | 50.7% |
| 30% | 1196-1169 | 50.6% |
However, when isolating visiting teams who are between 10 and 20 point underdogs, we see an increase in ATS win rate.
Table 2: College Basketball Visiting Underdogs (10-20 points) and Betting Against the Public
| Betting Percentage | ATS Record | ATS Win Percentage |
| 40% | 959-835 | 53.5% |
| 35% | 701-596 | 54.0% |
| 30% | 449-373 | 54.6% |
Starting at the 40% betting percentage level, visitors who are between 10 and 20 point underdogs become profitable and improve even further when filtering down to the 30% level.
Because there are so many games each college basketball season, focusing on more heavily bet games (by adding Bet Labs’ Number of Bets filter to the research above) increases win percentage even more.
If you’re interested in doing this analysis or creating your own data-driven college basketball betting systems, we invite you request a free live demo of our Bet Labs software.
Charles Arinder
11/13/2012 at 9:25 pmI follow your blog, site and twitter feed and have for a while. I believe that the approach through historical, trackable analysis is the only way sports betting will continue to be profitable in the future. Using financial analysis techniques as the backbone of your model is exactly my “cup of tea.”
As for the question: When you recommend betting one team at a specific percentage, does that team only count towards your analysis if the recommended team meets the specified percentage immediately before game time?
PJ
11/14/2012 at 9:06 amHey Charles,
You’re correct, the betting percentages used in our analysis always reflects the “closing percentage” or the final reported betting percentage before the game tips off.
Charles Arinder
11/19/2012 at 8:06 pmIs there a winning trend in NFL, NBA, NCAAF or NCAAB where you could bet WITH the public and win. I am specifically interested in the outcome of betting ML favorites receiving 90+ percent of wagers. Also, for curiosities’ sake, what is the return when betting those same teams ATS.
PJ
11/20/2012 at 8:59 amHey Charles, as part of Bet Labs mailbag column each week, we answer questions from readers regarding betting systems. IF you’re interested, please send them to us at BetLabs@sportsinsights.com or Tweet them to us using #Betlabs on Twitter.
Bear
01/28/2013 at 8:55 pmjust from this year thus far,
most of my success has been taking home underdogs when fading the public