And the 2014 NCAA Tournament Champion will be?
As part of our new (100% Free) College Basketball Central feature, the team at Sports Insights combined betting market probabilities, power ratings and expected randomness in an attempt to accurately simulate the entire NCAA Tournament.
Because we included randomness to account for upsets and the inevitable emergence of Cinderella(s), single simulations provide different results when run individually. However, over the long haul (meaning many simulations) we start to see patterns and teams that consistently advance to the Final Four and eventually win the 2014 NCAA Tournament Championship.
Based on Joe Lunardi’s updated bracket on ESPN.com (as of March 6th), we ran 1,000,000 simulations and determined which teams have the best chance to cut down the nets in April.
Not only have we listed our probabilities, we’ve also converted 5Dimes’ College Basketball Futures to implied probabilities to separate the pretenders from contenders.
| Team | Bracket Simulator | 5Dimes Futures | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 14.8% | 11.1% | +3.7% |
| Florida | 8.8% | 16.6% | -7.8% |
| Lousiville | 8.2% | 9.1% | -0.9% |
| Virginia | 7.9% | 6.3% | +1.7% |
| Kansas | 7.3% | 13.3% | -6.0% |
| Wichita State | 7.2% | 10.0% | -2.8% |
| Villanova | 5.5% | 3.4% | +2.1% |
| Creighton | 5.4% | 4.8% | +0.6% |
| Duke | 5.0% | 8.3% | -3.3% |
| Wisconsin | 3.4% | 4.8% | -1.4% |
| Michigan | 3.2% | 6.3% | -3.1% |
| Iowa | 2.0% | 2.4% | -0.4% |
| Syracuse | 2.0% | 5.9% | -3.9% |
| Ohio State | 1.8% | 1.6% | +0.2% |
| Michigan State | 1.5% | 11.1% | -9.6% |
| Cincinnati | 1.2% | 1.1% | +0.1% |
| UCLA | 1.2% | 1.5% | -0.3% |
| VCU | 1.1% | 2.0% | -0.9% |
| North Carolina | 1.1% | 3.4% | -2.3% |
| San Diego State | 1.0% | 2.4% | -1.4% |
After 1,000,000 simulations, Arizona was the last team standing 14.8% of the time, followed by Florida (8.8%), Louisville (8.2%) and Virginia (7.9%). Interestingly, when comparing Bracket Simulator’s probabilities to 5Dimes’ implied probabilities, we found that Arizona, Villanova and Virginia appear to be underrated while Michigan State, Florida and Kansas are the most overrated.
Going forward, we”ll use Joe Lunardi’s updated Bracketology from ESPN.com until the official bracket is released on Selection Sunday. As teams get shuffled to different regions and seeds change, probabilities will also fluctuate based on changes in projected matchups and strength of region.
As a result, make sure to check our 2014 Bracket Simulator often for updated brackets, simulations and probabilities.
Scott Morris
03/09/2014 at 11:02 amI personally like Duke because if the great value their coaching gives bettors year after year. It would be nice to see an upstart like Creighton pull off the hole thing this year though! Should make for an exciting tourney!