2015-16 College Football 4-Team Playoff Odds
After years of complaints about the Bowl Championship Series (BCS), last season the NCAA finally caved into the long time wishes of College Football fans by implementing a 4-team playoff.
In its first year, this new playoff system was a rousing success for fans and executives alike. Viewership for Ohio State’s 42-20 victory over Oregon beat the previous season’s National Championship game by 31% and was the second-highest rated title game ever (trailing only the 2006 matchup between Texas and USC).
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Despite Ohio State’s lopsided victory in last year’s title game, many voters were surprised to see the Buckeyes selected for this 4-team playoff over the likes of fellow 1-loss teams like TCU and Baylor. Though voters clearly made the right decision, it just goes to show you that anything is possible for the four teams who qualify.
Last season Florida State (-250), Alabama (-130), Ohio State (+100) and Oregon (+110) opened the year with the four best odds of making the playoffs and they certainty lived up to these expectations– but which four teams are expected to qualify this season?
The table below shows the current teams available to bet in this year’s NCAAF 4-team playoff along with their odds at 5Dimes. Along with the odds to make or miss the playoffs, we wanted to know the implied probability for each franchise to reach the postseason. By eliminating the juice/vig, we believe we have an accurate gauge on the confidence of the oddsmakers.
*Note: Ohio State’s odds are not currently posted at 5Dimes, so we substituted their current odds at Bovada.
| School | Yes (7/30) | No (7/30) | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State* | -250 | +175 | 68.00% |
| Alabama | +190 | -270 | 30.30% |
| TCU | +190 | -270 | 30.30% |
| Florida State | +315 | -445 | 20.83% |
| USC | +340 | -510 | 19.05% |
| Auburn | +350 | -530 | 18.52% |
| Oregon | +400 | -600 | 16.67% |
| Baylor | +425 | -675 | 15.38% |
| Georgia | +450 | -750 | 14.29% |
| Clemson | +525 | -975 | 11.76% |
| Michigan State | +550 | -1050 | 11.11% |
| LSU | +550 | -1050 | 11.11% |
| Notre Dame | +600 | -1200 | 10.00% |
| UCLA | +600 | -1200 | 10.00% |
| Oklahoma | +800 | -1700 | 7.41% |
| Mississippi | +975 | -1975 | 6.35% |
| Arkansas | +1000 | -2000 | 6.25% |
| Stanford | +1150 | -2450 | 5.26% |
| Tennessee | +1300 | -3000 | 4.44% |
| Wisconsin | +1400 | -3600 | 3.85% |
| Arizona State | +1400 | -3600 | 3.85% |
| Georgia Tech | +1700 | -5100 | 2.86% |
| Boise State | +2100 | -6300 | 2.33% |
| 2+ Teams From Same Conference | +325 | -475 | 20.00% |
| 2-Loss Team | +180 | -260 | 31.25% |
Based on the current odds, we can expect a 4-team playoff including Ohio State (-250), Alabama (+190), TCU (+190) and Florida State (+315). The top three fall in line with the recently released Coaches Poll; however, Florida State is ranked 7th by the pollsters and 4th by the oddsmakers. The Coaches Poll lists Baylor (8th best odds at +425) as the 4th best team in the nation.
The season begins on September 3rd and College Football fans should be sure to bookmark our free NCAAF odds page for up-to-date odds, trends, injuries and more. Bettors can also view the latest Win Totals, Futures, Conference Odds and Heisman Odds.
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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.
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