2015-16 NBA Win Totals
The NBA season doesn’t tip-off until October 27th with a slate of three games, but oddsmakers have already begun posting a number of prop bets and futures for the upcoming season. Earlier this offseason we posted MVP Odds, Rookie of the Year Odds and Championship Futures, but on Tuesday afternoon the Las Vegas based Westgate Superbook became the first oddsmaker to post NBA Win Totals.
The defending champion Warriors opened with the highest win total (60.5) followed by fellow Western Conference powers San Antonio (58.5) and Oklahoma City (57.5). The Cavs (56.5) have the highest win total of any Eastern Conference team.
A few days later, a number of offshore sportsbooks posted their own win totals including the market-setting CRIS. The table below compares the 2015-16 win totals for every team along with their record from last season and the discrepancy between the two.
| Team | CRIS (10/7) | Westgate (9/29) | 2014-15 Record | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | 60.5 | 60.5 | 67-15 | -6.5 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 57.5 | 56.5 | 56-26 | 0.5 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 57.5 | 56.5 | 53-29 | 3.5 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 56.5 | 58.5 | 55-27 | 3.5 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 56.5 | 57.5 | 45-37 | 12.5 |
| Houston Rockets | 55.5 | 54.5 | 56-26 | -1.5 |
| Chicago Bulls | 50.5 | 49.5 | 50-32 | -0.5 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 50.5 | 50.5 | 55-27 | -4.5 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 49.5 | 49.5 | 60-22 | -10.5 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 47.5 | 47.5 | 45-37 | 2.5 |
| Miami Heat | 46.5 | 45.5 | 37-45 | 8.5 |
| Toronto Raptors | 46.5 | 45.5 | 49-33 | -3.5 |
| Washington Wizards | 46.5 | 45.5 | 46-36 | -0.5 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 44.5 | 43.5 | 41-41 | 2.5 |
| Boston Celtics | 42.5 | 42.5 | 40-42 | 2.5 |
| Utah Jazz | 42.5 | 40.5 | 38-44 | 2.5 |
| Indiana Pacers | 41.5 | 42.5 | 38-44 | 4.5 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 36.5 | 38.5 | 50-32 | -11.5 |
| Phoenix Suns | 36.5 | 36.5 | 39-43 | -2.5 |
| Detroit Pistons | 35.5 | 33.5 | 32-50 | 1.5 |
| Orlando Magic | 34.5 | 32.5 | 25-57 | 7.5 |
| Sacramento Kings | 32.5 | 30.5 | 29-53 | 1.5 |
| Charlotte Hornets | 31.5 | 32.5 | 33-49 | -0.5 |
| New York Knicks | 29.5 | 31.5 | 17-65 | 14.5 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 29.5 | 29.5 | 21-61 | 8.5 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 28.5 | 28.5 | 38-44 | -9.5 |
| Denver Nuggets | 26.5 | 26.5 | 30-52 | -3.5 |
| Minnesota T-Wolves | 26.5 | 25.5 | 16-66 | 9.5 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 25.5 | 26.5 | 51-31 | -24.5 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 20.5 | 21.5 | 18-64 | 3.5 |
It’s interesting to note which teams oddsmakers believe are going to take significant steps forward, and which will drop off substantially. After losing Carmelo Anthony for the season, the Knicks limped to a 17-65 record. This season with a healthy ‘Melo, oddsmakers have set the over/under 31.5 — an improvement of 14.5 games.
On the flip side, the Portland Trail Blazers won 51 games last season and earned the 4th seed in an extremely competitive Western Conference. However, this offseason Portland lost four of their five starters including LaMarcus Aldridge (San Antonio), Robin Lopez (New York), Nicolas Batum (Charlotte) and Wes Matthews (Dallas). Following this massive roster turnover, oddsmakers set Portland’s win total at 26.5. This represents the third lowest over/under and a drop off of 24.5 games.
Bettors may also be curious to the Thunder with the third highest win total. Oklahoma City missed the playoffs last season but will Kevin Durant has been cleared to play and should be healthy for the start of the season. Factor in the lack of talent in the Northwest Division (Denver, Minnesota, Portland and Utah) it’s easy to see why oddsmakers are so optimistic about OKC.
The win totals at the Westgate and CRIS were quite similiar, with most teams either exactly the same or within one game. The few teams who did have a larger discrepancy include San Antonio (58.5 vs. 56.5), Utah (40.5 vs. 42.5), Dallas (38.5 vs. 36.5), Detroit (33.5 vs. 35.5), Orlando (32.5 vs. 34.5), Sacramento (30.5 vs. 32.5) and New York (31.5 vs. 29.5).
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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.
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