2015 Fantasy Baseball: Sleepers and Busts From the Oddsmakers

2015 Fantasy Baseball: Sleepers and Busts From the Oddsmakers

With the 2015 MLB season fast approaching, many teams will be holding their fantasy draft in the upcoming week. Although football continues to rule the fantasy kingdom, a new wave of advanced statistics and system building has allowed baseball to compete as a close second.

Almost everywhere you look there are lists of potential sleepers and busts. Wave after wave of players to avoid and players to target can be difficult to sift through, and fantasy managers have to question which analysts they can trust. However, over the past few years we have been using player props from offshore sportsbooks to determine underrated and overrated fantasy football players.

By comparing a player’s average ESPN draft position with the player prop futures at Bovada, we have been able to determine the players who sportsbooks believe are primed for a breakthrough season. Conversely, we can establish which players are being overhyped.

In our series of fantasy football previews we suggested that managers steer clear of Chargers WR Keenan Allen, Rams RB Zac Stacy, Titans RB Bishop Sankey and Eagles QB Nick Foles — all of whom vastly underperformed during the past season. We also pointed out value on Dolphins WR Mike Wallace, Redskins RB Alfred Morris, Giants QB Eli Manning and Patriots QB Tom Brady who all finished well ahead of their pre-draft position.

Admittedly we missed the boat by calling LeVeon Bell overvalued (the second year back tallied over 2,200 total yards and 11 touchdowns), but overall these oddsmakers predictions have been extremely accurate. So when Bovada posted an extensive list of MLB player props on Thursday (3/26) morning, we wanted to utilize the same strategy that has been so successful for fantasy football drafts.

Note: This edition of our fantasy analysis will focus solely on hitters and will compare projections from ESPN’s fantasy rankings with the 2015 player props from the popular Bovada sportsbook.

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With help from our Bet Labs manager Travis Reed, we were able to compare ESPN projections with Bovada prop bets for four of the major offensive categories. Using this data we have highlighted a number of potential sleepers and busts for the upcoming MLB season.

Home Runs (HR)

Player	Team	ESPN	Oddsmakers	Difference
Prince Fielder	TEX	21	27.5	6.5
Kendrys Morales	KC	17	20.5	3.5
Yoenis Cespedes	DET	23	25.5	2.5
Adrian Gonzalez	LAD	22	24.5	2.5
Matt Kemp	SD	21	23.5	2.5
Ryan Zimmerman	WSH	20	22.5	2.5
David Wright	NYM	16	18.5	2.5
Michael Morse	MIA	15	17.5	2.5
Eric Hosmer	KC	13	15.5	2.5
Miguel Cabrera	DET	29	30.5	1.5
Troy Tulowitzki	COL	27	28.5	1.5
Kris Bryant	CHC	27	28.5	1.5
Todd Frazier	CIN	24	25.5	1.5
Jay Bruce	CIN	24	25.5	1.5
Justin Upton	SD	23	24.5	1.5
Victor Martinez	DET	21	22.5	1.5
Matt Holliday	STL	21	22.5	1.5
Joey Votto	CIN	19	20.5	1.5
Brandon Belt	SF	19	20.5	1.5
Kennys Vargas	MIN	19	20.5	1.5
Alex Gordon	KC	18	19.5	1.5
Yasmany Tomas	ARI	18	19.5	1.5
Chase Headley	NYY	17	18.5	1.5
Jose Bautista	TOR	34	34.5	0.5
Mike Trout	LAA	32	32.5	0.5
Nelson Cruz	SEA	27	27.5	0.5
Albert Pujols	LAA	26	26.5	0.5
Adrian Beltre	TEX	24	24.5	0.5
Khris Davis	MIL	22	22.5	0.5
Freddie Freeman	ATL	21	21.5	0.5
Kole Calhoun	LAA	20	20.5	0.5
Matt Adams	STL	19	19.5	0.5
Jason Heyward	STL	17	17.5	0.5
J.J. Hardy	BAL	16	16.5	0.5
Jacoby Ellsbury	NYY	14	14.5	0.5
Billy Butler	OAK	14	14.5	0.5
Torii Hunter	MIN	14	14.5	0.5
Xander Bogaerts	BOS	14	14.5	0.5
Jose Abreu	CWS	34	33.5	-0.5
Bryce Harper	WSH	26	25.5	-0.5
Evan Longoria	TB	26	25.5	-0.5
Yasiel Puig	LAD	23	22.5	-0.5
Jorge Soler	CHC	23	22.5	-0.5
Marcell Ozuna	MIA	21	20.5	-0.5
Brian Dozier	MIN	21	20.5	-0.5
Hanley Ramirez	BOS	20	19.5	-0.5
Steve Pearce	BAL	20	19.5	-0.5
Carlos Beltran	NYY	20	19.5	-0.5
Manny Machado	BAL	18	17.5	-0.5
Michael Brantley	CLE	16	15.5	-0.5
Jonathan Lucroy	MIL	16	15.5	-0.5
Ian Kinsler	DET	16	15.5	-0.5
Pablo Sandoval	BOS	16	15.5	-0.5
Chase Utley	PHI	14	13.5	-0.5
Paul Goldschmidt	ARI	29	27.5	-1.5
Carlos Gonzalez	COL	26	24.5	-1.5
Adam LaRoche	CWS	25	23.5	-1.5
Brian McCann	NYY	24	22.5	-1.5
Marlon Byrd	CIN	22	20.5	-1.5
Anthony Rendon	WSH	21	19.5	-1.5
Buster Posey	SF	21	19.5	-1.5
Mike Napoli	BOS	21	19.5	-1.5
Robinson Cano	SEA	19	17.5	-1.5
Wil Myers	SD	18	16.5	-1.5
Giancarlo Stanton	MIA	40	37.5	-2.5
Andrew McCutchen	PIT	27	24.5	-2.5
Ryan Braun	MIL	27	24.5	-2.5
Lucas Duda	NYM	27	24.5	-2.5
Kyle Seager	SEA	25	22.5	-2.5
Devin Mesoraco	CIN	25	22.5	-2.5
Curtis Granderson	NYM	23	20.5	-2.5
Mark Teixeira	NYY	22	19.5	-2.5
Neil Walker	PIT	21	18.5	-2.5
Aramis Ramirez	MIL	18	15.5	-2.5
Adam Lind	MIL	18	15.5	-2.5
Russell Martin	TOR	17	14.5	-2.5
Edwin Encarnacion	TOR	36	32.5	-3.5
Anthony Rizzo	CHC	34	30.5	-3.5
Josh Donaldson	TOR	31	27.5	-3.5
George Springer	HOU	31	27.5	-3.5
Mark Trumbo	ARI	31	27.5	-3.5
David Ortiz	BOS	30	26.5	-3.5
Carlos Gomez	MIL	26	22.5	-3.5
Josh Reddick	OAK	18	14.5	-3.5
Adam Jones	BAL	32	27.5	-4.5
Pedro Alvarez	PIT	29	24.5	-4.5
Ryan Howard	PHI	23	18.5	-4.5
Chris Carter	HOU	36	30.5	-5.5
Evan Gattis	HOU	31	25.5	-5.5
Jedd Gyorko	SD	23	16.5	-6.5

Home runs may technically be just another category, but it’s one of the few statistics that also helps other categories. Batters with high home run totals will typically record more RBI, Runs, Total Bases, etc…

Our research found that Prince Fielder’s power production was clearly being undervalued following last year’s season-ending injury. Although ESPN predicts just 21 home runs for the 30-year old lefty, Bovada set the total 6.5 home runs higher at 27.5. Fielder is currently ranked 59th overall by ESPN, but he should be ranked in the neighborhood of Angels 1B Albert Pujols (48th overall).

So who should you be avoiding? Padres 2B Jedd Gyorko is listed as the most overvalued, but his ranking of 204 makes that fact fairly insignificant in 10 or 12-team leagues. Two more relevant fantasy players would be the Astros tandem of Evan Gattis and Chris Carter.

ESPN projected 31 home runs for Gattis and 36 home runs for Carter while Bovada lists the over/under at 25.5 and 30.5 respectively. Considering that both of these players provide power at the expense of batting average, you can safely drop these two Astros sluggers in your rankings.

Sleepers: Prince Fielder, Kendrys Morales, Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Zimmerman, David Wright, Michael Morse

Busts: Jedd Gyorko, Evan Gattis, Chris Carter, Ryan Howard, Pedro Alvarez, Adam Jones

Runs Batted In (RBI)

Player	Team	ESPN	Oddsmakers	Difference
David Wright	NYM	63	79.5	16.5
Troy Tulowitzki	COL	75	89.5	14.5
Kendrys Morales	KC	61	74.5	13.5
Brandon Belt	SF	60	72.5	12.5
Matt Kemp	SD	75	85.5	10.5
Joey Votto	CIN	59	69.5	10.5
Bryce Harper	WSH	71	80.5	9.5
Kris Bryant	CHC	71	79.5	8.5
Kennys Vargas	MIN	71	79.5	8.5
Jason Heyward	STL	61	69.5	8.5
Alex Rios	KC	61	69.5	8.5
Carlos Beltran	NYY	61	69.5	8.5
Albert Pujols	LAA	93	100.5	7.5
Jose Bautista	TOR	94	100.5	6.5
Adrian Beltre	TEX	79	85.5	6.5
Andrew McCutchen	PIT	84	89.5	5.5
Jacoby Ellsbury	NYY	60	65.5	5.5
Mike Trout	LAA	97	101.5	4.5
Lucas Duda	NYM	76	80.5	4.5
Prince Fielder	TEX	87	90.5	3.5
Carlos Gonzalez	COL	77	80.5	3.5
Matt Adams	STL	69	72.5	3.5
Eric Hosmer	KC	67	70.5	3.5
Justin Upton	SD	87	89.5	2.5
Anthony Rendon	WSH	77	79.5	2.5
Miguel Cabrera	DET	109	110.5	1.5
Josh Donaldson	TOR	94	95.5	1.5
Evan Longoria	TB	88	89.5	1.5
Matt Holliday	STL	84	85.5	1.5
Michael Brantley	CLE	83	84.5	1.5
Brian Dozier	MIN	69	70.5	1.5
Ryan Braun	MIL	90	90.5	0.5
Anthony Rizzo	CHC	89	89.5	0.5
Buster Posey	SF	85	85.5	0.5
Giancarlo Stanton	MIA	106	105.5	-0.5
Robinson Cano	SEA	90	89.5	-0.5
Jay Bruce	CIN	83	82.5	-0.5
Adrian Gonzalez	LAD	102	100.5	-1.5
Ian Kinsler	DET	77	75.5	-1.5
Edwin Encarnacion	TOR	102	99.5	-2.5
David Ortiz	BOS	92	89.5	-2.5
Nelson Cruz	SEA	87	84.5	-2.5
Aramis Ramirez	MIL	73	70.5	-2.5
Evan Gattis	HOU	84	80.5	-3.5
Ryan Zimmerman	WSH	83	79.5	-3.5
Brian McCann	NYY	79	75.5	-3.5
Russell Martin	TOR	64	60.5	-3.5
Jose Abreu	CWS	100	95.5	-4.5
Chris Carter	HOU	90	85.5	-4.5
Kyle Seager	SEA	84	79.5	-4.5
Salvador Perez	KC	75	70.5	-4.5
Freddie Freeman	ATL	90	84.5	-5.5
Ian Desmond	WSH	86	80.5	-5.5
Billy Butler	OAK	76	70.5	-5.5
Paul Goldschmidt	ARI	101	94.5	-6.5
Marcell Ozuna	MIA	86	79.5	-6.5
Jorge Soler	CHC	77	70.5	-6.5
Adam Jones	BAL	93	85.5	-7.5
George Springer	HOU	89	80.5	-8.5
Wil Myers	SD	75	65.5	-9.5
Yasiel Puig	LAD	91	80.5	-10.5
Yoenis Cespedes	DET	97	85.5	-11.5
Jedd Gyorko	SD	77	65.5	-11.5
Kole Calhoun	LAA	72	60.5	-11.5
Ryan Howard	PHI	89	75.5	-13.5

According to our analysis David Wright is the most undervalued player in this category. In the latest ESPN rankings update, the former All-Star third baseman is ranked just 124th overall. This is largely based on the assumption that Wright will only drive in 63 runs, however, Bovada’s projections are significantly higher at 79.5. Oddsmakers effectively believe that Wright will be comparable to Nolan Arenado despite the fact that the Rockies third baseman is ranked 50 spots higher.

The most overrated player in this category is clearly Phillies 1B Ryan “Untradeable Contract” Howard. Although Philadelphia is in the midst of a rebuild, the veteran slugger remains entrenched in the lineup. If Philly ever fully embraces the rebuild, Howard and his low average could be replaced by top prospect Maikel Franco.

Howard is still viewed as a source of cheap power, but oddsmakers have set the over/under for the 35-year old lefty at only 75.5 RBI — far less than the 89 RBI which ESPN’s fantasy pundits are predicting.

Sleepers: David Wright, Troy Tulowitzki, Kendrys Morales, Brandon Belt, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant

Busts: Ryan Howard, Kole Calhoun, Jedd Gyorko, Yoenis Cespedes, Yasiel Puig, Wil Myers, George Springer

Stolen Bases (SB)

Player	Team	ESPN	Oddsmakers	Difference
Mike Trout	LAA	20	25.5	5.5
Elvis Andrus	TEX	32	32.5	0.5
Alcides Escobar	KC	29	29.5	0.5
Gregory Polanco	PIT	25	25.5	0.5
Jose Reyes	TOR	30	29.5	-0.5
Jimmy Rollins	LAD	25	24.5	-0.5
Andrew McCutchen	PIT	21	20.5	-0.5
Desmond Jennings	TB	21	20.5	-0.5
Dee Gordon	MIA	52	50.5	-1.5
Lorenzo Cain	KC	27	25.5	-1.5
Alex Rios	KC	24	22.5	-1.5
Danny Santana	MIN	22	20.5	-1.5
Billy Hamilton	CIN	62	59.5	-2.5
Kolten Wong	STL	28	25.5	-2.5
Ian Desmond	WSH	23	20.5	-2.5
Austin Jackson	SEA	22	19.5	-2.5
Ben Revere	PHI	44	40.5	-3.5
Jacoby Ellsbury	NYY	43	39.5	-3.5
Coco Crisp	OAK	23	19.5	-3.5
Jose Altuve	HOU	46	40.5	-5.5
Starling Marte	PIT	36	29.5	-6.5
Carlos Gomez	MIL	40	32.5	-7.5
Leonys Martin	TEX	37	28.5	-8.5

There is only one player offering any legitimate upside in stolen bases; some little-known player named Mike Trout. The unquestioned number one overall pick in any draft, oddsmakers are predicting 25.5 steals for the reigning MVP while ESPN analysts are projecting just 20. This falls in line with rumors that Trout plans to be more active on the base paths this season.

AL MVP Mike Trout wants to steal more bases, cut down on strikeouts http://t.co/nmuZgZ5gU0

— MLB Trade Rumors (@MLBTradeRumors_) February 25, 2015

Calling Mike Trout a sleeper is kind of like calling Lindsey Lohan elegant, dignified and old-fashioned. Unless it’s the punch line to a joke, you’ll never hear those words uttered by anybody. But if there aren’t any true stolen base sleepers, who could fantasy managers be avoiding? We found four prominent names:

1. Rangers OF Leonys Martin | 28.5 vs. 37
2. Brewers OF Carlos Gomez | 40 vs. 32.5
3. Pirates OF Starling Marte | 36 vs. 29.5
4. Astros 2B Jose Altuve | 46 vs. 40.5

Despite playing 155 games last season and 147 games the year before, Martin has never reached the 37 steal mark which makes ESPN’s projection particularly perplexing. Jose Altuve stole 56 bases last season which makes his prediction more feasible; however, he accomplished the feat while batting .341. With his average expected to regress, it seems unlikely that the diminutive second baseman will be able to replicate his stolen base total from a season ago.

Sleepers: Mike Trout, Elvis Andrus, Alcides Escobar, Gregory Polanco

Runs

Player	Team	ESPN	Oddsmakers	Difference
Miguel Cabrera	DET	94	100.5	6.5
Matt Carpenter	STL	94	100.5	6.5
Giancarlo Stanton	MIA	92	95.5	3.5
Mike Trout	LAA	113	115.5	2.5
Yasiel Puig	LAD	93	95.5	2.5
Ian Kinsler	DET	94	95.5	1.5
Anthony Rendon	WSH	99	99.5	0.5
Jacoby Ellsbury	NYY	90	89.5	-0.5
Nick Markakis	ATL	80	75.5	-4.5
Andrew McCutchen	PIT	96	90.5	-5.5

Although there are only ten players with over/under projections for runs scored, there are a few prominent players who appear on this list. Our most underrated players for this category are Tigers 3B Miguel Cabrera and Cardinals 3B Matt Carpenter.

Despite winning two of the past three MVP awards, concerns about a right ankle injury have caused ESPN’s analysts to drop Miggy to #11 on their player rankings. This seems like a massive overreaction, and oddsmakers seem to concur that Cabrera is still worthy of a top-5 pick.

For overrated players, our attention is immediately turned to Pirates OF Andrew McCutchen. The 28-year old is the consensus #2 overall player but ESPN is overvaluing his runs scored by 5.5. This isn’t a large discrepancy, but when you also consider that his home run total is being overvalued by 2.5, it raises questions whether the former MVP is even worthy of the second overall pick.

McCutchen’s value seems to be based in the fact that he won’t hurt you in a single category, but personally I’d prefer Cabrera, Goldschmidt and potentially Stanton. The Pirates superstar may have a very high floor, but his ceiling isn’t as high as those other options.

Sleepers: Miguel Cabrera, Matt Carpenter, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout

Busts: Andrew McCutchen, Nick Markakis, Jacoby Ellsbury

We’ll return next week with our pitching preview, but make sure to bookmark our free MLB odds page for the latest lines, betting trends, lineups and injury updates.

David Solar is the Content Manager and can be reached via email at David@sportsinsights.com.