2015 NFL Betting: Who Will Lead the League in Passing Yards?
Earlier this offseason, we posted an article which examined the odds for various players to lead the league in rushing and receiving yards. While this can be an interesting prop bet, and certainly offers value for fantasy football players, most NFL fans tend to be single-minded in their adoration of one position: the quarterback.
In late June, Sportsbook.com, which admittedly has had their fair share of issues recently, posted a prop bet involving the league leader in passing yards for all 32 NFL starting quarterbacks.
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Although Drew Brees has led the league in passing yards in three of the past four seasons, the Saints signal caller opened at +750 which tied him for the third-shortest odds. Andrew Luck, who’s 4,761 passing yards ranked third last season, opened as the favorite at +375.
The table below compares the current odds at Sportsbook.com and 5Dimes and will be updated consistently throughout the season.
| Player | Team | 5Dimes (8/18) | Sportsbook (7/3) | 2014 Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | IND | +325 | +375 | 4,761 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | +500 | +500 | 4,381 |
| Drew Brees | NO | +700 | +750 | 4,952 |
| Peyton Manning | DEN | +750 | +750 | 4,727 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | +800 | +800 | 4,694 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | +1000 | +1000 | 4,952 |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | +1000 | +1000 | 4,257 |
| Eli Manning | NYG | +1500 | +2500 | 4,410 |
| Tom Brady | NE | +2500 | +2500 | 4,109 |
| Philip Rivers | SD | +2500 | +2500 | 4,286 |
| Tony Romo | DAL | +2800 | +2800 | 3,705 |
| Ryan Tannehill | MIA | +3500 | +3500 | 4,045 |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | +5000 | +5000 | 3,986 |
| Jameis Winston | TB | +5000 | +8500 | N/A |
| Nick Foles | STL | +7500 | +7500 | 2,163 |
| Jay Cutler | CHI | +7500 | +7500 | 3,812 |
| Alex Smith | KC | +7500 | +7500 | 3,265 |
| Colin Kaepernick | SF | +7500 | +7500 | 3,369 |
| Carson Palmer | ARI | +7500 | +7500 | 1,626 |
| Marcus Mariota | TEN | +7500 | +7500 | N/A |
| Robert Griffin | WSH | +8500 | +8500 | 1,694 |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | +8500 | +8500 | 3,398 |
| Cam Newton | CAR | +8500 | +8500 | 3,127 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | MIN | +8500 | +8500 | 2,919 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | +8500 | +8500 | 3,475 |
| Derek Carr | OAK | +8500 | +8500 | 3,270 |
| Sam Bradford | PHI | +9000 | +10000 | 1,687 |
| Brian Hoyer | HOU | +10000 | +10000 | 3,326 |
| Josh McCown | CLE | +10000 | +10000 | 2,206 |
| Blake Bortles | JAC | +10000 | +10000 | 2,908 |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | +15000 | +15000 | 2,525 |
| Matt Cassel | BUF | +15000 | +15000 | 425 |
Right off the bat, we were able to pinpoint a few interesting developments. For starters, Marcus Mariota (+7500) had shorter odds than fellow rookie Jameis Winston (+8500) despite the fact that Winston was picked ahead of Mariota in the NFL Draft. Additionally, Bovada set the over/under on Winston’s passing yardage at 3,750 while Mariota’s was significantly lower at 3,400. This was rectified when 5Dimes adjusted Winston’s odds to +5000.
It’s also interesting to see that Tom Brady’s odds (+2500) are on par with gunslingers like Eli Manning and Philip Rivers. Even if Brady’s suspension is reduced to a single game, it’s unlikely that he will be able to compensate for missed time.
If you’re looking for potential value, Ben Roethlisberger and Matthew Stafford (+1000) are interesting names to monitor. Big Ben was the co-leader in passing yards last season, has arguably the best wide receiver in football (Antonio Brown), and should rack up massive yardage in the first two games of the season with running back Le’Veon Bell suspended.
Stafford, who has one of the strongest arms in football, has finished among the top ten in passing yards in each of the past four seasons. During that time he has also ranked within the top three on three separate occasions, averaging 4728 passing yards per season.
At +2800, Tony Romo is another intriguing name. Assuming Dez Bryant doesn’t hold out, the Cowboys have no shortage of talented wide receivers. Factor in DeMarco Murray’s departure for Philadelphia and it’s entirely possible that Romo could see his pass attempts increase significantly.
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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.
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