2016 College Football: What Should Bettors Know For Conference Championship Week?
In this weekly column, we will summarize key events from the past week, provide bettors with information needed to make smarter college football bets, and help readers determine which teams are offering value.
Quick Hits
- Our Conference Championship preview is a useful resource to see how lines have shifted since the preseason.
- What are the Conference Championship line moves that matter? Here are two games that bettors should know about.
A look at preseason and current odds for College Football Conference Championship games: pic.twitter.com/EDJitdCSj8
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) December 2, 2016
- Lamar Jackson’s Heisman odds slipped a bit after a four turnover game, but he’s still a decisive favorite (-1700) to win the award. Despite consecutive disappointing performances, Jackson’s overall performance (over 4,900 total yards, 51 total touchdowns, and 9 interceptions) has been nothing but Heisman-worthy. Still, if you think otherwise, the field is available at +800.
- Following their double-overtime victory over Michigan, Ohio State moved to +200 to win the National Championship. Washington was another team on the rise this week, moving from +2000 to +800 after their blowout win over Washington State.
In our database of conference title games, teams getting <50% tickets have gone 35-25 ATS and teams with <40% tickets have gone 21-16 ATS. https://t.co/33EwB6lzCv
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) December 1, 2016
- In the game of the week, find out why there’s value in Saturday’s Big Ten Championship Game.
- Alabama (-11000) and Ohio State (-3000) appear to be locks to make the college football playoff odds. Which teams do oddsmakers believe will secure the other two spots?
- In Episode 17 of our Smarter Bets Podcast, Dan and David provide their favorite NCAAF betting trends and break down all of the conference championship games.
Unranked teams have gone 27-19 ATS in NCAAF conference title games, including 10-2 ATS against ranked opponents.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) December 1, 2016
Key Injuries
- Saquon Barkley (Foot), is upgraded to probable Saturday (12/3) vs. Wisconsin
- Kenny Hill (Foot), is upgraded to probable Saturday (12/3) vs. Kansas State
- Jesse Ertz (Leg), is probable Saturday (12/3) at TCU
- Rushel Shell (Ankle), is questionable Saturday (12/3) vs. Baylor
- Tyler Rogers (Elbow), is doubtful Saturday (12/3) at South Alabama
- Luke Del Rio (Shoulder), is doubtful Saturday (12/3) vs. Alabama
- Click here for all NCAAF injuries
Key Line Movement
Florida vs. Alabama, 4:00 PM Eastern: In case you’re living under a rock, Alabama has dominated college football once again. This season ‘Bama is 12-0 and has been a double-digit favorite in every game, except for 11/5 against LSU. Even if the Crimson Tide somehow lose on Saturday, the team could make the college football playoffs.
On Saturday, Alabama will take on Florida at the Georgia Dome in the SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide opened as a 22-point favorite at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook and at the time of publication are receiving 59% of spread bets.
The graph below displays Alabama’s line movement and shifts in public betting throughout the week.
‘Bama has been one of the public darlings this season and it’s not surprising they’ve received a significant amount of support throughout the week. Since opening, they have received no fewer than half of spread bets as well as spread money. Currently, they are receiving 69% of spread dollars. One-sided action on Alabama has forced oddsmakers to adjust the line a few times, moving the Crimson Tide from 22-point to 24-point favorites.
In addition, bettors should monitor the status of Florida quarterback Luke Del Rio, who has missed the last three games due to a shoulder injury. Florida has not ruled out Del Rio for Saturday’s contest, but it remains doubtful that he plays. Expect these numbers to slightly shift if he returns to the starting lineup.
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