2016 Heisman Odds

2016 Heisman Odds

Nearly two weeks before bowl season had concluded, oddsmakers were already looking forward to the following season. Paddy Power, a prominent sportsbook based in the United Kingdom, posted Heisman odds for the 2016 college football season. This development was somewhat perplexing given that many top candidates — including the reigning Heisman winner Derrick Henry — were expected to declare for the NFL Draft.

Roughly three weeks later, Bovada posted their own Heisman odds and there were several discrepancies. As expected, Henry declared for the NFL Draft and was removed from the list of Heisman hopefuls. Largely based on a strong performance in the national championship game, Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson jumped from +800 to +450 to become the undisputed front-runner.

On September 9th, the market-setting Bookmaker.eu posted Heisman odds with $5,000 limits — significantly higher than any other offshore sportsbook. They initially listed Deshaun Watson (+301) as the favorite, but within one week he had been replaced by Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey. The following week, a new front-runner emerged.

After tallying over 350 total yards and five touchdowns in a blowout victory over Florida State, Louisville’s Lamar Jackson saw his odds of winning the Heisman Trophy skyrocket. Jackson, who available at 110/1 before the season, became the favorite at +120. The following week Jackson racked up nearly 500 total yards and seven touchdowns against Marshall. That performance caused his odds to jump from +120 to -160.

On Saturday, October 1, Louisville suffered their first defeat of the season against Clemson, but Jackson once again posted impressive numbers with 295 passing yards, 162 rushing yards and three total touchdowns. Despite the loss, Jackson’s Heisman odds improved from -160 to -210. Clemson’s Deshaun Watson, who threw for over 300 yards in the win, saw his odds improve from +950 to +400.

Louisville didn’t play the following week, which caused Jackson’s odds to drop from -210 to -170. Conversely, Watson threw for 270 yards and four touchdowns in a 56-10 victory over Boston College, which caused his odds to improve from +400 to +300. The biggest move involved Washington’s Jake Browning, who passed for over 300 yards with eight total touchdowns in a 70-21 demolition of Oregon. This caused the sophomore quarterback’s odds to soar from 50/1 to 12/1.

In the following weeks these odds had largely stagnated, with Lamar Jackson listed between -200 and -350. Following his seven touchdown performance against Boston College, Jackson’s odds of winning the Heisman jumped from -300 to -1500 at 5Dimes. His numbers weren’t impressive the subsequent week against Wake Forest, but losses by Clemson, Michigan and Washington seriously impacted the Heisman odds of several major candidates. This caused Jackson’s Heisman odds to improve from -1500 to -3500.

Although Louisville has lost their two games, Jackson’s odds haven’t faltered significantly. Quite frankly, it’s tough to imagine a situation where Jackson doesn’t win the Heisman Trophy. Jackson has posted over 4,900 total yards with 51 touchdowns and just 9 interceptions. Jackson is currently -1950 to win the Heisman, with the field listed at +950.

The table below compares the Heisman odds at 5Dimes, Bookmaker, Bovada and Paddy Power. It will be updated as more information becomes available.

It’s interesting to note that the Heisman Trophy is usually awarded to a quarterback or running back with the exception of two tight ends (Larry Kelley, Leon Hart), two wide receivers (Desmond Howard, Tim Brown) and one defensive back (Charles Woodson).

The table below shows the recent winners of this award along with their odds and the first week that they were available as an option.

Below was written in the preseason

When Paddy Power first posted their odds, I explained that LSU running back Leonard Fournette was being mispriced at +1000. Unfortunately, books quickly adjusted to this oversight, and Fournette is currently +650 at 5Dimes.

I believe that Houston’s Greg Ward Jr. (+6000) is an intriguing long shot candidate, and his odds could skyrocket with a Week 1 victory over Oklahoma. In his junior season, Ward racked up 2,590 passing yards and 1,041 rushing yards with 35 touchdowns versus just 5 interceptions.

If you’re looking for somebody with shorter odds, Florida State running back Dalvin Cook (+1200) is an interesting candidate. Last season Cook ran for 1691 yards and 19 touchdowns, and the Seminoles will return essentially the same offensive line. With a freshman quarterback expected to start, Cook will be relied upon heavily and could potentially rush for over 2,000 yards.

I’m also partial to J.T. Barrett at 14/1. There has been lots of love for Michigan recently, but Ohio State is still the best team in that conference and Barrett should post great numbers as both a passer and rusher. With Ezekiel Elliott gone, Barrett will have ample opportunity to carry the offense.

Who do you think will take home the Heisman Trophy next season? Will another quarterback or running back win the award? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.