2016 March Madness: Sweet 16 Odds
Earlier this morning the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook posted odds for several prominent teams to reach the Sweet 16. Although Kansas (+467) is the favorite to win it all, North Carolina actually has the best odds of advancing past this weekend.
It was also interesting to see that despite being the 2-seed in the Midwest Region, Michigan State (-360) has better odds of reaching the Sweet 16 than the 1-seed, Virginia. The table below displays the current odds of making the Sweet 16 at Pinnacle.
| School | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | -800 | +569 |
| Kansas | -500 | +388 |
| Virginia | -400 | +319 |
| Michigan State | -360 | +291 |
| Oklahoma | -255 | +212 |
| Villanova | -235 | +197 |
| Oregon | -225 | +189 |
| Texas A&M | -179 | +152 |
| Xavier | -146 | +125 |
| West Virginia | -145 | +124 |
| Kentucky | -136 | +116 |
| Duke | +111 | -130 |
| Utah | +115 | -134 |
| Miami (FL) | +126 | -148 |
| California | +128 | -150 |
| Iowa State | +188 | -224 |
After viewing these Sweet 16 odds, we wanted to know if any of these futures were offering value so we consulted our bracket simulator. By converting these odds into implied probabilities, we were able to diagnose the largest discrepancies between the two sets of data. After taking our bracket simulator results and subtracting the implied probabilities based on Pinnacle’s odds, we were able to identify several excellent opportunities.
The table below displays the implied probabilities, simulator probabilities and the difference between the two numbers.
| SCHOOL | IMPLIED MAKING | SIMULATOR MAKING | Difference | IMPLIED MISSING | SIMULATOR MISSING | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 88.89% | 82.80% | -6.09% | 14.95% | 17.20% | 2.25% |
| Kansas | 83.33% | 77.40% | -5.93% | 20.49% | 22.60% | 2.11% |
| Virginia | 80.00% | 79.70% | -0.30% | 23.87% | 20.30% | -3.57% |
| Michigan State | 78.26% | 79.80% | 1.54% | 25.58% | 20.20% | -5.38% |
| Oklahoma | 71.83% | 68.10% | -3.73% | 32.05% | 31.90% | -0.15% |
| Villanova | 70.15% | 65.70% | -4.45% | 33.67% | 34.30% | 0.63% |
| Oregon | 69.23% | 66.80% | -2.43% | 34.60% | 33.20% | -1.40% |
| Texas A&M | 64.16% | 62.10% | -2.06% | 39.68% | 37.90% | -1.78% |
| Xavier | 59.35% | 59.80% | 0.45% | 44.44% | 40.20% | -4.24% |
| West Virginia | 59.18% | 60.50% | 1.32% | 44.64% | 39.50% | -5.14% |
| Kentucky | 57.63% | 50.20% | -7.43% | 46.30% | 49.80% | 3.50% |
| Duke | 47.39% | 49.60% | 2.21% | 56.52% | 50.40% | -6.12% |
| Utah | 46.51% | 41.20% | -5.31% | 57.26% | 58.80% | 1.54% |
| Miami (FL) | 44.25% | 47.60% | 3.35% | 59.68% | 52.40% | -7.28% |
| California | 43.86% | 38.60% | -5.26% | 60.00% | 61.40% | 1.40% |
| Iowa State | 34.72% | 45.40% | 10.68% | 69.14% | 54.60% | -14.54% |
Based on these results, it seems clear that our bracket simulator believes that Iowa State’s odds of making the Sweet 16 (+188) are being vastly underestimated. Our simulations give the Cyclones a 45.4% probability of advancing to the Sweet 16, which equates to implied odds of +120.
We should also point out that their first round opponent, Iona, is a very trendy Cinderella pick. Our recent analysis found that this could create additional value on Iowa State (-8) in Thursday’s game.
Iowa State is definitely the strongest play but there are two additional value bets:
- Miami (+126) to make the Sweet 16
- Kentucky (+116) to miss the Sweet 16
Bettors should also be sure to visit our free college basketball odds page for the latest lines, injuries, public betting trends and more.
Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.
David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@SportsInsights.com
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