2016 MLB Playoff Odds
We’ve highlighted numerous futures and props throughout the MLB offseason and 5Dimes has recently released odds for each team to make the playoffs. Below shows which teams are expected to make it and which are considered longshots, along with their accompanying win totals and divisional odds:
| Team | Odds to Make Playoffs | Odds to Miss Playoffs | Season Win Total | Odds to Win Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | -610 | +425 | 93.5 | -185 |
| Mets | -295 | +235 | 89.5 | -125 |
| Nationals | -245 | +185 | 88.5 | +125 |
| Dodgers | -240 | +180 | 89.5 | +115 |
| Giants | -205 | +165 | 88.5 | +130 |
| Royals | -150 | +120 | 84.5 | +170 |
| Astros | -135 | +105 | 88.5 | +135 |
| Red Sox | -135 | +105 | 86.5 | +170 |
| Blue Jays | -120 | -110 | 86.5 | +220 |
| Indians | -115 | -115 | 85.5 | +185 |
| Cardinals | +100 | -130 | 87.5 | +335 |
| Pirates | +140 | -170 | 86.5 | +435 |
| Rangers | +140 | -170 | 83.5 | +290 |
| Mariners | +160 | -195 | 82.5 | +335 |
| Yankees | +165 | -205 | 85.5 | +335 |
| Diamondbacks | +190 | -250 | 81.5 | +430 |
| Angels | +210 | -270 | 80.5 | +550 |
| Tigers | +235 | -295 | 81.5 | +425 |
| White Sox | +290 | -380 | 80.5 | +575 |
| Rays | +400 | -550 | 82.5 | +740 |
| Marlins | +450 | -675 | 78.5 | +10000 |
| Orioles | +550 | -925 | 79.5 | +775 |
| Twins | +735 | -1350 | 79.5 | +950 |
| Athletics | +900 | -1610 | 75.5 | +1300 |
| Padres | +1400 | -3050 | 73.5 | +2800 |
| Brewers | +5500 | -17500 | 70.5 | +8000 |
| Reds | +5500 | -17500 | 70.5 | +8000 |
| Rockies | +6000 | -20000 | 71.5 | +9000 |
| Braves | +6500 | -21500 | 65.5 | +10000 |
| Phillies | +11500 | -36500 | 64.5 | +15000 |
No surprise that the World Series frontrunning Cubs are favorites to make the playoffs, but -610 seems a bit steep, especially in a division with both the Pirates and Cardinals. While it’s true that the bulk of the poor MLB teams are in the National League this year, they have two tough division opponents as well as teams like the Nats, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, and DBacks all vying for playoff spots.
The value picks may reside in the American League as the parity is tremendous heading into the season. One noteworthy team is the Indians, who aren’t a trendy pick and are essentially a toss-up to make the playoffs. They’re coming off a disappointing season but certainly have the pitching staff to either win the AL Central or a Wild Card slot.
It’s also interesting to look at the differences between divisional odds and odds to make the playoffs. For some, it makes a lot more sense to bet a team to make the playoffs rather than winning the division outright. For example, the Rays are listed at +740 to win the AL East and the Orioles are listed at +775 to win the AL East. However, the Rays’ odds to make the playoffs are just +400 while the Orioles are at +550, so if you’re high on Baltimore this year then the +550 option is likely smarter.
Are the Cubs overvalued at -610, or are they essentially a “lock” to make the playoffs?
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