2016 NFL Mock Draft: An Oddsmakers Take (Part 2)
Last week in this space, we utilized a wealth of prop bets in order to project the first sixteen picks in tomorrow’s NFL Draft. At the time, there was some uncertainty about who the Rams would take with the first overall pick. Although it was clear they would be selecting a quarterback, some oddsmakers had California’s Jared Goff listed as the favorite while some believed that North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz would get the nod.
We took a leap of faith projecting that they would take Goff, and our hunch looks to be correct. At the time of publication, Bovada listed Goff at -1500 to be selected with the first overall pick.
Most sportsbooks take very low limits on these types of prop bets, although Bookmaker.eu was somewhat of an outlier with max bets of $500. These low limits mean that these odds can move significantly in a short period of time. Bettors are often times able to beat the book on breaking news, and there are frequently good arbitrage opportunities.
On Tuesday, Sports Intereraction (SIA) was offering a prop bet for the first wide receiver selected and offered Laquon Treadwell (-800) vs. The Field (+435). They’re a fairly square sportsbook, and viewed Treadwell as clear-cut number one receiver in this draft. Other books did not agree.
Bookmaker, which is one of the market-setting sportsbooks, also listed odds for the first wide receiver drafted with Treadwell (+265) listed alongside Corey Coleman (+265) and Josh Doctson (+145). That meant bettors should take Treadwell at Bookmaker and The Field at Sports Interaction to guarantee a small profit. Although both props have been taken off the board, it shows that there are inefficiencies that can be exploited by opportunistic bettors.
The table below displays the current odds for several prop bets across the sports betting marketplace. These odds may fluctuate greatly, so be sure to follow us on twitter for the latest updates.
DRAFT POSITION
Laremy Tunsil
Over 4.5 -160, Under 4.5 +120 (5Dimes)
Over 4.5 -165, Under 4.5 +125 (Sportsbook.com)
Over 4.5 -160, Under 4.5 +120 (Heritage)
Over 3.5 -300, Over 3.5 +240 (Bookmaker)
Myles Jack
Over 5.5 -320, Under 5.5 +240 (5Dimes)
Over 8 -120, Under 8 -120 (Bovada)
Over 5.5 -360, Under 5.5 +240 (Sportsbook.com)
Over 5.5 -320, Under 5.5 +235 (Heritage)
DeForest Buckner
Over 6.5 +165, Under 6.5 -215 (5Dimes)
Over 6.5 +140, Under 6.5 -185 (Sportsbook.com)
Over 6.5 +125, Under 6.5 -165 (Heritage)
Over 6.5 +140, Under 6.5 -180 (Bookmaker)
Joey Bosa
Over 6.5 +400, Under 6.5 -600 (5Dimes)
Over 5 +100, Under 5 -140 (Bovada)
Over 3.5 -1400, Under 3.5 +650 (Sportsbook.com)
Over 3.5 -250, Under 3.5 +185 (Heritage)
Over 5.5 +100, Under 5.5 -130 (MyBookie)
Over 4.5 -165, Under 4.5 +135 (Bookmaker)
Ezekiel Elliot
Over 8.5 -110, Under 8.5 -130 (5Dimes)
Over 8.5 +110, Under 8.5 -150 (Bovada)
Over 8.5 -135, Under 8.5 -105 (Sportsbook.com)
Over 8.5 +130, Under 8.5 -170 (Heritage)
Over 8.5 -130, Under 8.5 +100 (MyBookie)
Over 8.5 +110, Under 8.5 -140 (Bookmaker)
Ronnie Stanley
Over 10.5 +335, Under 10.5 -505 (5Dimes)
Over 10.5 +280, Under 10.5 -420 (Sportsbook.com)
Over 10.5 +310, Under 10.5 -510 (Heritage)
Over 7.5 +150, Under 7.5 -190 (Bookmaker)
Darron Lee
Over 10.5 -900, Under 10.5 +500 (5Dimes)
Over 10.5 -700, Under 10.5 +425 (Sportsbook.com)
Over 10.5 -900, Under 10.5 +500 (Heritage)
Over 13 -160, Under 13 +130 (Bookmaker)
Shaq Lawson
Over 14.5 +200, Under 14.5 -280 (5Dimes)
Over 14.5 +155, Under 14.5 -210 (Sportsbook.com)
Over 14.5 +200, Under 14.5 -280 (Heritage)
Over 16 +125, Under 16 -155 (Bookmaker)
Laquon Treadwell
Over 20.5 -215, Under 20.5 +165 (5Dimes)
Over 20.5 -185, Under 20.5 +140 (Bovada)
Over 20.5 -220, Under 20.5 +160 (Heritage)
Paxton Lynch
Over 21.5 +150, Under 21.5 -200 (Bovada)
Corey Coleman
Over 21.5 -245, Under 21.5 +175 (5Dimes)
Over 21.5 -260, Under 21.5 +180 (Sportsbook.com)
Over 21.5 -240, Under 21.5 +175 (Heritage)
Josh Doctson
Over 22.5 -120, Under 22.5 -120 (5Dimes)
Over 22.5 -120, Under 22.5 (Sportsbook.com)
Over 22.5 -115 Under 22.5 -115 (Heritage)
Will Fuller
First Round? Yes -185 | No +155 (BetOnline)
Derrick Henry
Over 36.5 -160, Under 36.5 +120 (5Dimes)
Over 36.5 -150, Under 36.5 +110 (Bovada)
Over 36.5 -150, Under 36.5 +110 (Sportsbook.com)
Over 36.5 -160, Under 36.5 +120 (Heritage)
First Round? Yes +650 | No -1200 (BetOnline)
Pharoh Cooper
Over 56.5 -310, Under 56.5 +230 (5Dimes)
Over 56.5 -260, Under 56.5 +180 (Sportsbook.com)
Over 56.5 -310, Under 56.5 +230 (Heritage)
Moritz Boehringer
Over 202.5 -115, Under 202.5 -115 (Ladbrokes)
Braxton Miller
1st round: +2500
2nd round: +200
3rd round: +110
4th round: +400
5th round: +700
6th round or later: +1800 (BetOnline)
WHO WILL BE DRAFTED FIRST?
Jared Goff -1500, Carson Wentz +700, Field +3300 (Bovada)
Jared Goff -1000, Carson Wentz +600, Field +3300 (BetOnline)
Jalen Ramsey -170, Laremy Tunsil +130 (5Dimes)
Jalen Ramsey -165, Laremy Tunsil +125 (Sportsbook.com)
Jalen Ramsey -160, Laremy Tunsil +120 (Heritage)
Jalen Ramsey -200, Laremy Tunsil +160 (Bookmaker)
Jalen Ramsey -700, Myles Jack +450 (BetOnline)
Joey Bosa -420, Myles Jack +300 (5Dimes)
Joey Bosa -360, Myles Jack +240 (Sportsbook.com)
Joey Bosa -420, Myles Jack +280 (Heritage)
Joey Bosa -251, Myles Jack +195 (Bookmaker)
Joey Bosa -155, DeForest Buckner +125 (BetOnline)
Laquon Treadwell -140, Josh Doctson +100 (5Dimes)
Laquon Treadwell -160, Josh Doctson +120 (Sportsbook.com)
Laquon Treadwell -105, Josh Doctson -125 (Bookmaker)
Josh Doctson -150, Corey Coleman +120 (BetOnline)
Corey Coleman -190, Will Fuller +150 (5Dimes)
Corey Coleman -225, Will Fuller +165 (Sportsbook.com)
Corey Coleman -150, Will Fuller +120 (Bookmaker)
Paxton Lynch -700, Connor Cook +450 (Bookmaker)
Dak Prescott -300, Cardale Jones +240 (BetOnline)
WHO WILL BE DRAFTED FIRST? (GROUPS)
3rd Overall Pick: Laremy Tunsil -110, Jalen Ramsey +115, Joey Bosa +350, Field +1200 (BetFair)
3rd Overall Pick: Ronnie Stanley +150, Jalen Ramsey +250, DeForest Buckner +350, Laremy Tunsil +350 (BetOnline)
4th Overall Pick: Jalen Ramsey -110, Ezekiel Elliott +155, Joey Bosa +350 (BetOnline)
5th Overall Pick: Joey Bosa +135, Jalen Ramsey +300, Leonard Floyd, +450 DeForest Buckner +450, Myles Jack +800 (BetOnline)
First RB Drafted: Ezekiel Elliot -10000, Derrick Henry +10000, Devontae Booker +2000, Field +4000 (Paddy Power)
First WR Drafted: Laquon Treadwell +180, Josh Doctson +275, Corey Coleman +300, Will Fuller +325 (BetOnline)
First TE Drafted: Hunter Henry -3300, Field +1200 (Paddy Power)
Group 1: Jalen Ramsey -110, Laremy Tunsil +160, Joey Bosa +200 (Sportsbook.com)
Group 2: Joey Bosa -125, DeForest Buckner -120, Ezekiel Elliott +600, Myles Jack +1000 (Sportsbook.com)
Group 3: Ronnie Stanley -600, Shaq Lawson +700, Sheldon Rankins +1000, Jarran Reed +1000 (Sportsbook.com)
Group 4: Jack Conlin -180, Laquon Treadwell +200, Darron Lee +400, Taylor Decker +1200 (Sportsbook.com)
Group 5: Corey Coleman +140, Josh Doctson +140, Robert Nkemdiche +200, Will Fuller +600 (Sportsbook.com)
Group A: Joey Bosa -140, DeForest Buckner +160, Myles Jack +580 (Bookmaker)
Group B: Ronnie Stanley -550, Jack Conklin +425, Taylor Decker +1000 (Bookmaker)
Group C: Josh Doctson +167, Laquon Treadwell +263, Corey Coleman +274, Will Fuller +380 (Bookmaker)
MISCELLANEOUS
Will there be at least three quarterbacks taken in Round 1?
Yes -900 | No +500 (5Dimes)
Yes -1500 | No +700 (Bovada)
Yes -3000 | No +900 (Sportsbook.com)
Yes -1500 | No +800 (BetOnline)
Yes -900 | No +500 (Heritage)
Will there be at least four quarterbacks taken in Round 1?
Yes +140 | No -170 (Bookmaker)
Will there be at least 2 running backs taken in Round 1?
Yes +350 | No -500 (BetOnline)
Will there be at least 4 wide receivers taken in Round 1?
Yes +125 | No -165 (Bovada)
Yes +120 | No -150 (BetOnline)
Will there be at least 6 running backs and wide receivers taken in Round 1?
Yes +280 | No -400 (5Dimes)
Yes +170 | No -235 (Sportsbook.com)
Yes +260 | No -400 (Heritage)
Will there be at least 6 offensive linemen taken in Round 1?
Yes -185 | No +155 (BetOnline)
Will there be at least 8 defensive linemen taken in Round 1?
Yes -475 | No +325 (Sportsbook.com)
Will there be at least 9 defensive linemen taken in Round 1?
Yes +130 | No -160 (BetOnline)
Will there be at least 5 linebackers taken in Round 1?
Yes +160 | No -120 (5Dimes)
Yes +125 | No -165 (Sportsbook.com)
Yes +155 | No -210 (Heritage)
Will there be at least 5 cornerbacks taken in Round 1?
Yes -165 | No +135 (BetOnline)
Will there be at least 14 offensive players taken in Round 1?
Yes +100 | No -140 (5Dimes)
Yes +110 | No -150 (Bovada)
Yes -130 | No -110 (Sportsbook.com)
Will there be at least 18 defensive players taken in Round 1?
Yes -125 | No -115 (5Dimes)
Yes -140 | No +100 (Bovada)
Yes -115 | No -125 (Sportsbook.com)
Will there be at least 6 Ohio State players taken in Round 1?
Yes +175 | No -245 (5Dimes)
Yes +170 | No -250 (Bovada)
Yes +185 | No -265 (Sportsbook.com)
Yes +250 | No -325 (BetOnline)
Yes +235 | No -320 (Heritage)
Yes +200 | No -280 (Bookmaker)
Will there be at least 14 Ohio State players drafted overall?
Yes -115 | No -125 (5Dimes)
Yes -135 | No -105 (Sportsbook.com)
Will there be at least 3 Ole Miss players taken in Round 1?
Yes -215 | No +165 (5Dimes)
Yes -140 | No +100 (Bovada)
Yes -200 | No +150 (Sportsbook.com)
Will there be at least 4 Alabama players taken in Round 1?
Yes -155 | No +115 (5Dimes)
Yes -150 | No +110 (Bovada)
Yes -155 | No +115 (Sportsbook.com)
Will there be at least 9 SEC players taken in Round 1?
Yes -120 | No -120 (5Dimes)
Yes +100 | No -140 (Bovada)
Yes -130 | No -110 (Sportsbook.com)
Will there be a tight end taken in Round 1?
Yes +300 | No -450 (Ladbrokes)
Using these draft props along with some educated guesses based on my own analysis, we were able to create an oddsmakers mock draft for the entire first round of the NFL Draft. For some context, we have compared these predictions to the results from Peter King’s latest mock.
| Team | Oddsmakers (4/28) | Peter King |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Los Angeles Rams | Jared Goff | Jared Goff |
| 2. Philadelphia Eagles | Carson Wentz | Carson Wentz |
| 3. San Diego Chargers | Ronnie Stanley | Jalen Ramsey |
| 4. Dallas Cowboys | Jalen Ramsey | Ezekiel Elliott |
| 5. Jacksonville Jaguars | Joey Bosa | Laremy Tunsil |
| 6. Baltimore Ravens | DeForest Buckner | Joey Bosa |
| 7. San Francisco 49ers | Laremy Tunsil | DeForest Buckner |
| 8. Cleveland Browns | Ezekiel Elliott | Ronnie Stanley |
| 9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Vernon Hargreaves | Vernon Hargreaves |
| 10. New York Giants | Myles Jack | Myles Jack |
| 11. Chicago Bears | Leonard Floyd | Shaq Lawson |
| 12. New Orleans Saints | Jack Conklin | Sheldon Rankins |
| 13. Miami Dolphins | Darron Lee | Eli Apple |
| 14. Oakland Raiders | Shaq Lawson | William Jackson III |
| 15. Tennessee Titans | Taylor Decker | Leonard Floyd |
| 16. Detroit Lions | Sheldon Rankins | A’Shawn Robinson |
| 17. Atlanta Falcons | Jarran Reed | Darron Lee |
| 18. Indianapolis Colts | William Jackson III | Taylor Decker |
| 19. Buffalo Bills | Eli Apple | Robert Nkemdiche |
| 20. New York Jets | Paxton Lynch | Jack Conklin |
| 21. Washington Redskins | Robert Nkemdiche | Vernon Butler |
| 22. Houston Texans | Laquon Treadwell | Will Fuller |
| 23. Minnesota Vikings | Josh Doctson | Josh Doctson |
| 24. Cincinnati Bengals | Corey Coleman | Corey Coleman |
| 25. Pittsburgh Steelers | A'Shawn Robinson | Mackensie Alexander |
| 26. Seattle Seahawks | Reggie Ragland | Paxton Lynch |
| 27. Green Bay Packers | Noah Spence | Reggie Ragland |
| 28. Kansas City Chiefs | Artie Burns | Laquon Treadwell |
| 29. Arizona Cardinals | Kevin Dodd | Ryan Kelly |
| 30. Carolina Panthers | Will Fuller | Emmanuel Ogbah |
| 31. Denver Broncos | Karl Joseph | Jarran Reed |
Based on these results, there are a few prop bets that appear to be offering value:
Under 5.5 Ohio State players drafted in the 1st round (-245 at 5Dimes)
Under 4.5 linebackers drafted in the 1st round (-120 at 5Dimes)
Under 3.5 quarterbacks drafted in the 1st round (-170 at Bookmaker)
Over 3.5 wide receivers drafted in the 1st round (+125 at Bovada)
Do you agree with our mock draft? Are there any props you’ll be taking? Please leave your thoughts and comments in the section below.
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