2016 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

2016 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

The 2016 NFL Draft concluded on Saturday, April 26th and oddsmakers didn’t wait long before posting odds for the Offensive Rookie of the Year. On Wednesday (5/4) Bovada became the first major sportsbook to offer Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, followed by Sportsbook.com on Friday (5/6), BetOnline on Monday (5/9) and Sports Interaction on Tuesday (5/10).

Since the award was first handed out in 1967, more running backs have won this award (33) than all other positions combined (16). It’s also worth noting that although only seven quarterbacks have ever won this award, six of those winners have come in the last twelve years.

The table below displays the past Offensive ROY winners along with their preseason odds. (Information from SportsOddsHistory.com)

Although quarterbacks were taken with the first two picks of this year’s draft, it’s not surprising to see that Cowboys first-round pick Ezekiel Elliot (-150) was listed as the preseason favorite — especially given the past success of running backs. Dallas has one of the best offensive lines in the league, but that price still seems overly inflated.

Jared Goff, the first overall pick, was initially installed with the second-shortest odds at BetOnline (+800) and the shortest odds at Bovada (+200). This highlights the importance of having access to multiple books and always shopping for the best line before placing a wager.

As the season has progressed, the main storylines have surrounded the duo of Cowboys rookies. Ezekiel Elliot has been the favorite in all but one week (he was briefly surpassed by Carson Wentz), but the ascension of Dak Prescott has been equally interesting.

Immediately after the NFL Draft, Prescott was the Cowboys third-string quarterback and was listed as a 300/1 long shot to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. After injuries to Tony Romo and Kellen Moore, Prescott was named the starter and his odds skyrocketed to 11/1. His combination of consistency and efficiency have been critical to the Cowboys success, and the 4th round pick at one point reached +120 to win this award. Over the past few weeks, Elliott has steadily increased his lead over Prescott.

The table below compares the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds at 5Dimes, BetOnline, Bovada, and Sportsbook.com. This data will be updated as the season approaches so be sure to check back for the latest updates.

The section below was originally published on May 9th

One player with puzzling odds is Carson Wentz, the second overall pick in this year’s draft. The North Dakota State product may have some competition for the starter’s job, but it’s tough to imagine that the Eagles would draft somebody this high and let him ride the bench. Considering that Sam Bradford has already demanded a trade, Wentz seems like he’s been mispriced at +5,000.

In terms of potential sleeper value, I love Giants running back Paul Perkins at +10,000. Over his last two seasons at UCLA, Perkins rushed for 2,918 yards and 23 touchdowns while displaying terrific vision and burst. There have been questions about his size and durability, but some of those concerns have been overblown.

Rashad Jennings has struggled to stay on the field, Andre Williams has offered limited production and Shane Vereen will never be anything more than a third-down back. If given the opportunity, I believe Perkins has the potential to be a productive three-down back for a potent Giants offense.

Do you agree with our picks? Which players do you think are offering value? Should books be offering Ezekiel Elliot versus the field? Leave your thoughts in the section below.

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