2016 NFL Season: Week 5 Betting Recap

2016 NFL Season: Week 5 Betting Recap

Every Tuesday morning, the team at Sports Insights will examine some of the most interesting trends and results from the past week’s NFL action. We’ll also look at our betting systems, prop bets, futures movement, bad beats and more.

• Based on the closing line at Pinnacle, underdogs went 7-6-1 ATS in Week 5. On the season, underdogs have gone 40-36-1.
• Road teams went 8-5-1 ATS in Week 5 which pushes their record to 41-34-1 ATS on the season.
• Road underdogs went 5-3 ATS in Week 5. They have gone 29-23 ATS (55.8%) this season and 1186-1114 ATS (51.6%) since 2003.
• Road underdogs continue to provide exceptional value in divisional games. They went 2-0 in Week 5, pushing their record to 11-5 ATS (66.1%) this season. Since the start of the 2003 season, they have gone 442-370 ATS (54.4%).

NFL road underdogs in divisional games have gone 11-5 ATS this season after going 41-21 ATS last season.

— David Solar (@TheDavidSolar) October 11, 2016

• Betting against the public was a losing strategy in Week 6. Teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets went 6-7 ATS, teams receiving less than 40% of spread bets went 2-4 ATS and teams receiving less than 30% of spread bets went 0-1 ATS.
• In Tom Brady’s return from suspension, the New England Patriots (closed -10 at Pinnacle) received 82% of spread bets against the Cleveland Browns. This was the most one-sided public betting of the season, and the Patriots won 33-13. That easy cover was great for most bettors and horrible for the sportsbooks.
• Looking at our newly added money percentages, you can see that it was a decent week for sportsbooks aside from the NE/CLE game. Teams receiving less than 50% of the money went 7-6 ATS, teams receiving less than 40% of the money went 2-1 ATS and teams receiving less than 30% of the money went 2-1 ATS.
• Teams coming off a bye week went 0-1-1 last week. Since 2003, they have gone 249-236 ATS.
• Bettors would have done well to follow the line movement last week. When the line got at least one-point worse (i.e. moving from +4 to +3 or -6 to -7), teams went 5-3 ATS.
• It’s been an excellent year for first-time starting quarterbacks, but former top overall picks have struggled mightily.

NFL first time starters (Siemian, Prescott, Garoppolo, Wentz, Brissett, Lynch, Kessler) have combined to go 15-6 ATS this season.

— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) October 11, 2016

Former 1st overall picks

Sam Bradford: 4-0 ATS

All other QB's: 10-21 ATS
Includes Stafford, Winston, Luck, Palmer, Newton, Manning, Smith

— David Solar (@TheDavidSolar) October 11, 2016

• It’s been a good season for publicly backed underdogs. This season ‘dogs receiving at least 50% of spread bets have gone 13-9 ATS and ‘dogs receiving at least 60% of spread bets have gone 4-1 ATS.
• Another example showing why it’s crucial to shop for the best line: The Packers opened -7.5 against the Giants, eventually dropped to -6.5 and closed -7. Green Bay won by 7-points, which means you could have won taking either side depending on your timing.
• The over went 7-7 in Week 5, pushing the record to 42-35 on the season.
• A majority of public bettors have taken the over in 81.8% of games this season.
• Historically it’s been more profitable to take the over in games with low totals and the under in games with high totals. This season the over has gone 16-6 when the closing total is less than 43. When the total is at least 43, the over has gone just 26-29.
• Underdogs went 6-8 straight up, earning moneyline bettors 1.69 units. The biggest moneyline upset occurred on Monday night with Tampa Bay (+217) defeating Carolina.
• This season moneyline underdogs have gone 35-42 (45.5%) straight up, with +15.40 units won.
• In divisional games, road underdogs have gone 14-10 straight up. $100/game bettors would have earned $12.45 units by taking every divisional ‘dog on the moneyline.
• Important note for anybody taking small underdogs on the moneyline:

NFL moneyline results on closing spreads since '03 (via @Bet_Labs)

+2.5 pts = +24.52 units
+3 pts = +41.40 units
+3.5 pts = -14.35 units

— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) October 9, 2016

• Matt Ryan leads the league with 1740 passing yards. Before the season he had the third-shortest odds (+850) to lead the league.
• Ezekiel Elliott leads the league with 546 rushing yards. Before the season he was tied for the third-shortest odds (+900) to lead the league.
• Marvin Jones leads the league with 519 receiving yards. Before the season he was an 80/1 longshot to lead the league.
• There are several key players listed as questionable, and we’ll be tracking their status throughout the week. Some of these players include: Carson Palmer (Concussion), Cam Newton (Concussion), Steve Smith (Ankle), Dez Bryant (Knee), Stefon Diggs (Groin) and Josh McCown (Shoulder). Check out the latest updates on our free NFL injury page.
• Following their win last week, the Buffalo Bills odds of winning the Super Bowl improved from 40/1 to 28/1 at BetOnline. Following their loss on Monday, the Panthers odds of winning the Super Bowl dropped from 22/1 to 80/1. The table below displays the full odds movement in the past week.

Make sure to bookmark our free NFL odds page for the latest lines, public betting trends, futures and more.

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