2017 Oscars Odds
It’s the most wonderful time of the year… Hollywood awards season! In January and February, we can look forward to the Golden Globe Awards, the People’s Choice Awards, Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) and, of course, Hollywood’s top prize, the Academy Awards.
The 89th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, February 26th at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. The ceremony, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel, honors the best films of 2016 in 24 categories, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor and Best Actress.
Although the official nominations have not yet been announced, oddsmakers think La La Land will sweep the major categories.
With just a little over 2 months until the ceremony, Paddy Power has posted odds for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress.
Best Picture
| FILM | Odds (2/22) | Odds (1/24) | Odds (12/15) |
|---|---|---|---|
| La La Land | -599 | -699 | -187 |
| Moonlight | +550 | +650 | +600 |
| Hidden Figures | +1000 | +4000 | N/A |
| Manchester by the Sea | +1200 | +1200 | +800 |
| Lion | +6000 | +8000 | +2500 |
| Fences | +6600 | +6600 | +1400 |
| Hacksaw Ridge | +6600 | +6600 | +1400 |
| Hell or High Water | +1000 | +8000 | N/A |
| Arrival | +1000 | +8000 | +3300 |
| Silence | N/A | N/A | +1000 |
| Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk | N/A | N/A | +1800 |
| Jackie | N/A | N/A | +2000 |
| 20th Century Women | N/A | N/A | +3300 |
| Sully | N/A | N/A | +3300 |
| American Pastoral | N/A | N/A | +3300 |
| Loving | N/A | N/A | +1200 |
| Birth of A Nation | N/A | N/A | +2500 |
| Hail, Caesar! | N/A | N/A | +20000 |
| Cafe Society | N/A | N/A | +20000 |
| Maggies Plan | N/A | N/A | +10000 |
| The Jungle Book | N/A | N/A | +10000 |
| Snowden | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Nocturnal Animals | N/A | N/A | +3300 |
Best Director
| DIRECTOR | FILM | ODDS (2/22) | ODDS (1/24) | ODDS (12/15) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Chazelle | La La Land | -2000 | -900 | -225 |
| Barry Jenkins | Moonlight | +1100 | +900 | +600 |
| Kenneth Lonergan | Manchester by the Sea | +1400 | +1000 | +350 |
| Denis Villenueve | Arrival | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Mel Gibson | Hacksaw Ridge | +5000 | +6600 | +1400 |
| Denzel Washington | Fences | N/A | N/A | +1600 |
| Garth Davis | Lion | N/A | N/A | +9000 |
| Ang Lee | Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk | N/A | N/A | +2500 |
| Nate Parker | Birth of a Nation | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Clint Eastwood | Sully | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Pablo Larrain | Jackie | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Jeff Nichols | Loving | N/A | N/A | +1600 |
| Martin Scorcese | Silence | N/A | N/A | +2500 |
Best Actor
| Actor | Film | Odds (2/22) | Odds (1/24) | Odds (12/15) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Affleck | Manchester by the Sea | -175 | -500 | +100 |
| Denzel Washington | Fences | +125 | +450 | +200 |
| Ryan Gosling | La La Land | +1100 | +1000 | +600 |
| Andrew Garfield | Hacksaw Ridge | +3300 | +3300 | +1000 |
| Viggo Mortensen | Captain Fantastic | +8000 | +8000 | +2500 |
| Michael Keaton | The Founder | N/A | N/A | +1400 |
| Hugh Grant | Florence Foster Jenkins | N/A | N/A | +2000 |
| Tom Hanks | Sully | N/A | N/A | +2000 |
| Joe Alwyn | Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk | N/A | N/A | +2500 |
| Joel Edgerton | Loving | N/A | N/A | +1000 |
| Ryan Reynolds | Deadpool | N/A | N/A | +3300 |
| Colin Farrell | The Lobster | N/A | N/A | +2000 |
| Jake Gyllenhaal | Nocturnal Animals | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Nate Parker | Birth of A Nation | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Shia LeBeouf | American Honey | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Ewan McGregor | American Pastoral | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Joseph Gordon-Levitt | Snowden | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Jonah Hill | War Dogs | N/A | N/A | +4000 |
Best Actress
| Actress | Film | Odds (2/22) | Odds (1/24) | Odds (12/15) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Stone | La La Land | -599 | -137 | +110 |
| Natalie Portman | Jackie | +400 | +175 | +188 |
| Isabelle Huppert | Elle | +900 | +550 | +1400 |
| Ruth Negga | Loving | +4000 | +4000 | +450 |
| Meryl Streep | Florence Foster Jenkins | +6600 | +5000 | +3300 |
| Emily Blunt | The Girl on the Train | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Jessica Chastain | Miss Sloane | N/A | N/A | +1800 |
| Rooney Mara | Lion | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Lily Collins | Rules Don't Apply | N/A | N/A | +2200 |
| Amy Adams | Arrival | N/A | N/A | +850 |
| Alicia Vikander | The Light Between Oceans | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Jennifer Lawrence | Passengers | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Hailee Steinfeld | Edge of Seventeen | N/A | N/A | +2200 |
| Annette Bening | 20th Century Women | N/A | N/A | +750 |
Best Supporting Actor
| Actress | Film | Odds (2/22) | Odds (1/24) | Odds (12/15) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mahershala Ali | Moonlight | -1000 | -699 | -150 |
| Dev Patel | Lion | +700 | +2000 | +900 |
| Jeff Bridges | Hell or High Water | +1200 | +1200 | +700 |
| Michael Shannon | Nocturnal Animals | +1200 | +1000 | +650 |
| Lucas Hedges | Manchester by the Sea | +1600 | +1400 | +650 |
| Liam Neeson | Silence | N/A | N/A | +900 |
| Hugh Grant | Florence Foster Jenkins | N/A | N/A | +1600 |
| Isei Igata | Silence | N/A | N/A | +2000 |
| John Goodman | 10 Cloverfield Lane | N/A | N/A | +3300 |
| Steve Martin | Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk | N/A | N/A | +3300 |
| Stephen Henderson | Fences | N/A | N/A | +3300 |
| Ben Foster | Hell of High Water | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Kevin Costner | Hidden Figures | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
Best Supporting Actress
| Actress | Film | Odds (2/22) | Odds (1/24) | Odds (12/15) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viola Davis | Fences | -1798 | -1400 | -225 |
| Michelle Williams | Manchester by the Sea | +1000 | +1000 | +400 |
| Naomie Harris | Moonlight | +1400 | +1400 | +500 |
| Nicole Kidman | Lion | +2500 | +3300 | +1000 |
| Octavia Spencer | Hidden Figures | +8000 | +8000 | +5000 |
| Margo Martindale | The Hollas | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Aja Naomi King | Birth of A Nation | N/A | N/A | +3300 |
| Felicity Jones | A Monster Calls | N/A | N/A | +3300 |
| Janelle Monae | Moonlight | N/A | N/A | +2000 |
| Amy Adams | Nocturnal Animals | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Greta Gerwig | 20th Century Women | N/A | N/A | +3300 |
| Dakota Fanning | American Pastoral | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Elle Fanning | 20th Century Women | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Kate Winslet | Collateral Beauty | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Kristen Stewart | Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Kiera Knightley | Collateral Beauty | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
The much-buzzed-about L.A. set musical La La Land is dominating the odds race as the front-runner for most of the Oscars’ directing, acting, music and visual categories. Starring former Mouseketeer Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone, the musical tells the story of two struggling lovers in modern day L.A. From striking visuals to inspiring musical sets, the film has already won awards at the Capri Hollywood International Film Festival for best ensemble cast and best film score.
Another strong Best Picture contender includes the heartbreaking drama Manchester by the Sea (+800). Casey Affleck’s performance as troubled janitor Lee Chandler, who finds meaning when he’s forced to move to the North Shore to take custody of his late brother’s son, may be the performance that will land this underdog some Hollywood glory. Affleck is the Best Actor (+100) frontrunner for his part in Manchester by the Sea. He was Oscar-nominated for Best Supporting Actor, in 2008, for his breakout role in the Assassination of Jesse James, but he’s yet to emerge from the Oscar race victorious.
Watch out for Moonlight (+600), the story of a young black man growing up in a rough neighborhood in Miami. I think it will be a close race with La La Land for Best Picture.
The Golden Globe nominations were released earlier this week and, in years past, they have provided an interesting road map for how the Oscar race might turn out. But, as we’ve seen in recent years, a Globe win doesn’t guarantee an Oscar lock so it’s probably not the most accurate Oscar barometer.
Nominations for the Screen Actors Guild Awards were announced yesterday. History has shown the best actor, actress, and supporting actor winners tend to forecast which nominees in those categories will also emerge as winners at the Oscars, so make sure you tune in for the late-January ceremony.
1/24/17 Update:
Early this morning, nominations for the Academy Awards were announced via live stream.
La La Land remains the strong favorite overall, dancing away with 14 nominations and matching a record held by Titanic and All About Eve. La La Land landed a record seven wins at the Golden Globes and remains the favorite for Best Picture (-699), Best Director (Damien Chazelle -900), and Best Actress (Emma Stone -137).
Moonlight and Arrival both received nominations in eight categories. Lion, Hacksaw Ridge and Manchester by the Sea received six nominations, while Fences had four noms.
This year’s nominations are vastly different from last year, where the #OscarsSoWhite controversy took center stage. After two years in which the Oscars failed to nominate a black actor in any of the acting categories, nominations this year represent a diverse pool of actors and films. This year, voters actually chose the largest number of black candidates in Oscar history.
Surprise additions include Mel Gibson’s best director nomination; he’s currently +6600 at Paddy Power. Gibson is slowly making his way back into the Hollywood inner sanctum, after being an outcast for about a decade due to anti-Semitic remarks and well-publicized personal and legal troubles. Michael Shannon’s best supporting actor nomination (+1000) for Nocturnal Animals has been a pleasant surprise, as he was one of the high points of the film.
2/22/17 Update:
Let the Oscars countdown commence! You can officially count the days remaining until the ceremony on just one hand. I’ve updated the 6 major categories with today’s odds and I’ll give you a quick breakdown of where I think there’s value.
Best Picture and Best Director
Although it’s not my first choice to take home the Oscar, I think La La Land (-599) will win the Oscar for Best Picture and Best Director. With 14 nominations, the musical has dominated this year’s Oscars in almost an unprecedented way. Although I don’t necessarily agree that it is the best picture of the year (my vote is for Moonlight), I think La La Land will emerge victorious.
As for Best Director, I also believe it will go to La La Land’s Damien Chazelle (-2000). La La Land has been a huge frontrunner for Best Picture and I don’t see how anyone but Chazelle will walk away with the Oscar.
Best Actor
It’s a close race for Best Actor between Denzel Washington (Fences) and Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), but I think there’s value on Washington (+125) even though Affleck (-175) has consistently remained the favorite. Washington took home “Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role” at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards and, as I’ve said before, the SAG awards are in my opinion the best Oscars barometer.
Best Actress
Although Natalie Portman’s (+400) performance as Jackie Kennedy, in Jackie, was outstanding, I believe the Oscar in this category will go to the favorite Emma Stone (-599) for La La Land. It seemed like the role was made for her, which is why I was surprised to hear that Emma Watson was originally set to star in the role. Allegedly, Watson was too demanding and I bet producers are secretly rejoicing.
Best Supporting Actor
I think this one will go to favorite Mahershala Ali (-1000) for Moonlight. Last month, I said to watch out for this movie because I thought it had a good chance of dominating in some of the categories. In my opinion, Ali’s performance will land him the Hollywood gold.
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis (-1798) was phenomenal as “Rose Maxson,” the estranged housewife, in Fences. The Julliard School graduate beautifully brings to life August Wilson’s play. It’s shocking that that she has never won an Oscar (she has been nominated in the past for her roles in Doubt and The Help), but I think this year she’ll be the Leonardo DiCaprio of the ceremony.
What do you think? Any surprises or snubs? Leave your thoughts in the comment section below.
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