2017 US Open Golf Odds and Preview
The 2017 US Open will take place June 15-18 at Erin Hills in Erin, Wisconsin. Last year’s winner was Dustin Johnson who closed at +1310 odds and secured his first major victory of his career. Unfortunately DJ was a late scratch for this year’s Masters so the US Open will be the first major he plays in this year. Sergio Garcia won the first major of 2017 at The Masters, beating Justin Rose in a playoff.
Here’s a look at recent US Open winners and their consensus pre-tournament odds to win:
| Year | Player | Odds to Win |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Dustin Johnson | +1300 |
| 2015 | Jordan Spieth | +800 |
| 2014 | Martin Kaymer | +4000 |
| 2013 | Justin Rose | +2500 |
| 2012 | Webb Simpson | +5000 |
| 2011 | Rory McIlroy | +1400 |
| 2010 | Graeme McDowell | +8000 |
| 2009 | Lucas Glover | +25000 |
| 2008 | Tiger Woods | +170 |
| 2007 | Angel Cabrera | +20000 |
| 2006 | Geoff Ogilvy | +8000 |
| 2005 | Michael Campbell | +50000 |
| 2004 | Retief Goosen | +15000 |
| 2003 | Jim Furyk | +3300 |
And here are odds to win the 2017 US Open from BetOnline, 5Dimes and Bovada:
| Golfer | April 17, 2017 (5Dimes) | Jan 9, 2017 (Bovada) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Johnson | +700 | +900 |
| Rory McIlroy | +800 | +800 |
| Jordan Spieth | +1000 | +1000 |
| Jason Day | +1200 | +800 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +1600 | +2000 |
| Justin Rose | +1600 | +2200 |
| Sergio Garcia | +2000 | +4000 |
| Henrik Stenson | +2200 | +2500 |
| Adam Scott | +2800 | +2800 |
| Rickie Fowler | +2800 | +2800 |
| Jon Rahm | +2800 | N/A |
| Justin Thomas | +3300 | +6600 |
| Phil Mickelson | +3300 | +2800 |
| Branden Grace | +4000 | +4000 |
| Brooks Koepka | +4000 | +4000 |
| Patrick Reed | +4000 | +4000 |
| Thomas Pieters | +4000 | N/A |
| Bubba Watson | +5000 | +4500 |
| Danny Willett | +5000 | +5500 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | +5000 | +5500 |
| Matt Kuchar | +5000 | +5000 |
| Paul Casey | +5000 | +6600 |
| Tiger Woods | +5000 | +2500 |
| Brandt Snedeker | +6600 | +6600 |
| Charl Schwartzel | +6600 | +7500 |
| Daniel Berger | +6600 | +6600 |
| Jim Furyk | +6600 | +6600 |
| Martin Kaymer | +6600 | +6600 |
| Byeong-Hun An | +8000 | +12500 |
| Jimmy Walker | +8000 | +8000 |
| Lee Westwood | +8000 | +9000 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | +8000 | +9000 |
| Shane Lowry | +8000 | +10000 |
| Zach Johnson | +8000 | +7500 |
| Charley Hoffman | +10000 | +12500 |
| J.B. Holmes | +10000 | +10000 |
| Jason Dufner | +10000 | +10000 |
| Marc Leishman | +10000 | +10000 |
| Alex Noren | +10000 | +8000 |
| Billy Horschel | +10000 | +9000 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +10000 | +8000 |
| Kevin Chappell | +10000 | +8000 |
| Russell Knox | +10000 | +10000 |
| Tyrell Hatton | +10000 | +15000 |
| Bill Haas | +12500 | +12500 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +12500 | +10000 |
| Kevin Kisner | +12500 | +12500 |
| Rafa Cabrera-Bello | +12500 | +12500 |
| Francesco Molinari | +12500 | +15000 |
| Graeme McDowell | +12500 | +12500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +12500 | N/A |
| Andy Sullivan | +15000 | +15000 |
| Danny Lee | +15000 | +12500 |
| Kevin Na | +15000 | +10000 |
| Smylie Kaufman | +15000 | N/A |
| Soren Kjeldsen | +15000 | N/A |
| Bernd Wiesberger | +15000 | +20000 |
| Brendan Steele | +15000 | N/A |
| Chris Kirk | +15000 | +15000 |
| Chris Wood | +15000 | +15000 |
| David Lingmerth | +15000 | +15000 |
| Harris English | +15000 | +15000 |
| Jamie Donaldson | +15000 | +20000 |
| Keegan Bradley | +15000 | +15000 |
| Luke Donald | +15000 | +15000 |
| Russell Henley | +15000 | +20000 |
| Ryan Moore | +15000 | +12500 |
| Ryan Palmer | +15000 | +15000 |
| Steve Stricker | +15000 | +15000 |
| Tony Finau | +15000 | +12500 |
| Webb Simpson | +15000 | +15000 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | +17500 | N/A |
| Daniel Summerhays | +20000 | N/A |
| Ian Poulter | +20000 | N/A |
| Scott Piercy | +20000 | N/A |
| Victor Dubuisson | +20000 | +20000 |
| Anirban Lahiri | +25000 | +25000 |
| Alexander Levy | +25000 | +25000 |
| Ernie Els | +25000 | +25000 |
Prior to his back injury which kept him out of The Masters, Johnson was dominating the golf scene and was favored to win each major of the 2017 season. Despite missing out on the first major, he’s still the +700 favorite to win the US Open this year, followed by McIlroy, Spieth, and Day. Tiger Woods will once again miss out, and Phil Mickelson is also not expected to play as he’ll attend his daughter’s graduation.
At BetOnline, Rickie Fowler (+1600) and John Rahm (+1800) are their biggest exposures so far. At Westgate, Fowler and Rahm are among the top 5 ticket and money counts, along with Johnson. Surprisingly, Phil Mickelson is still getting a lot of attention despite slim chances that he’ll even participate. Many sportsbooks will refund the bets if he doesn’t tee off, but make sure to know your sportsbook’s rules before placing any wager.
As for value picks, we were successful in finding a winner at The Masters and will try to provide another winner for the US Open. Remember to find the best line possible, as futures often differ around the market.
Dan McGuire (Operations Manager): Justin Thomas +3750 (Bookmaker)
I’m a bit surprised Justin Thomas isn’t getting more buzz for the US Open, but at +3750 I like the price. He’s been one of the best players on tour this year, earning seven Top-10’s already and a respectable 32nd-place at last year’s US Open. He also has experience at this course as an amateur. He’s a long-driver but not the most accurate off the tee, so this course’s wide fairways should also help him. With two Top-5 finishes in his last three starts, he’s playing too well to pass up.
Travis Reed (Bet Labs Manager): Jason Dufner +6600 (5Dimes) and Shane Lowry +8050 (Bookmaker)
It’s really tough to handicap a tournament at a new venue that nobody really knows exactly how the course will play. I was fortunate to hit Sergio at 40:1 at The Masters but I had plenty of previous data to come to that conclusion. In this case, we really only know two things: the course is really long and the fairways are really wide. This sets up perfectly for the long bombers which is why it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that Dustin Johnson is the favorite heading in. I agree with the oddsmakers’ assessment and will look to take DJ in some matchups, but don’t think the payout is enough to take him to win the tournament.
Instead, with so many unknowns, I’m going to back a couple longshots in Jason Dufner and Shane Lowry. Dufner has been playing really well recently including a win, while Lowry has shown he can compete in the US Open with two straight Top-10 finishes. Hopefully with the new course, we can get a surprise winner here.
Mark Gallant (Sports Info Specialist): Brooks Koepka +3628 (Bookmaker)
With Erin Hills set to provide the longest U.S. Open ever, longer players will have the advantage. Brooks Koepka, the 6th longest driver on tour this season, is one of those players.
Koepka has made seven straight cuts, highlighted by an 11th place Masters finish and 2nd place finish at the Valero Texas Open. He’s currently the 22nd ranked player in the world and provides value at 36/1. If you like Dustin Johnson’s chances (which are obviously better than Koepka’s), consider taking a chance on Koepka due to their similar playing style.
And here are some available prop bets via Westgate and Bookmaker:
Winning Score O/U: 279.5
Winning Score: Under Par -650, Even Par +730, 1 or 2 Over +750, 3 Over or higher +800
Cut Score O/U: 148.5
Lowest Round O/U: 65.5
Highest Round O/U: 86.5
Hole in One: -150
Playoff: +300
Nationality of winner: USA +105, Europe +195, Field -230
Headwear of winner: Hat -1600, Visor +750, None +4500
First hug by winner: Significant Other +155, Child +220, Wife holding child +300, Parent +600, None +900
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