Clemson, West Virginia Most Overrated in NCAAF AP Top 25
Results for the 2017 preseason AP Top 25 College Football poll have been released and perennial powers Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State, USC and Clemson make up the top five positions. While mainstream sports media leans on these rankings as a projected measure of strength, betting odds provide a better window into how oddsmakers view these teams and how the betting market values them heading into the 2017-18 season.
The table below offers odds to win the National Championship and to make the 4-Team Playoff for each team included in the AP Top 25 Poll.
| AP Rank | Team | Championship Odds | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | +245 | -195 |
| 2 | Ohio State | +800 | +140 |
| 3 | Florida State | +975 | +150 |
| 4 | USC | +775 | +145 |
| 5 | Clemson | +3600 | +700 |
| 6 | Penn State | +2200 | +450 |
| 7 | Oklahoma | +1800 | +250 |
| 8 | Washington | +2350 | +425 |
| 9 | Wisconsin | +4000 | +725 |
| 10 | Oklahoma State | +4250 | +800 |
| 11 | Michigan | +2700 | +500 |
| 12 | Auburn | +2000 | +500 |
| 13 | LSU | +2000 | +450 |
| 14 | Stanford | +11000 | +1600 |
| 15 | Georgia | +3500 | +825 |
| 16 | Louisville | +5300 | +1000 |
| 17 | Florida | OTB | +850 |
| 18 | Miami (FL) | +8000 | +1200 |
| 19 | South Florida | +12500 | +3000 |
| 20 | Kansas State | +12000 | +1600 |
| 21 | Virginia Tech | +9000 | +1400 |
| 22 | West Virginia | +40000 | +7000 |
| 23 | Texas | +5000 | +850 |
| 24 | Washington State | +16000 | +1900 |
| 25 | Tennessee | +10300 | +1500 |
*Odds via 5Dimes
Within the Top 5, Clemson is clearly the most overrated considering their +3600 odds to repeat as national champs and +700 just to qualify for the playoff. In comparison, LSU is listed at +2000 and +450 respectively, and didn’t crack the AP’s Top 10.
West Virginia also sticks out as a team extremely overvalued by AP voters, highlighted by +40000 National Championship odds and a price of +7000 just to make the 2018 College Football Playoff. In addition, we published a post on fading trendy college football win totals earlier this month that highlighted “sharper and bigger money is on WVU to go Under 7 wins this season”.
What are you thoughts on the preseason Top 25? We invite to leave your opinions on both the most overrated and underrated teams in the comments section below.
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