Contrarian NFL Bettors Should Tread Lightly in Week 17
Anything can happen during Week 17. Teams won’t try, coaches will rest key players for part of/the entire game, and must-win affairs may not play out the way you expect them to.
There’s one thing that has stuck out, though, at least from a betting perspective. Historically, Week 17 has been the best week of the season for teams getting at least 70% of bets.
| Week | ATS Record | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 27-20-1 | +13.1% |
| 7 | 23-18-1 | +10.7% |
| 14 | 38-31 | +8.5% |
| 9 | 30-25-1 | +7.0% |
| 12 | 36-30-2 | +6.9% |
| 4 | 31-27 | +6.2% |
| 13 | 35-34-2 | +0.1% |
| 11 | 25-26-4 | -3.4% |
| 8 | 25-26 | -3.6% |
| 1 | 38-39 | -4.1% |
| 16 | 30-33-1 | -5.4% |
| 15 | 30-34-3 | -7.2% |
| 5 | 26-29-1 | -7.5% |
| 10 | 23-32 | -16.1% |
| 2 | 30-46-2 | -20.1% |
| 3 | 28-45-2 | -24.5% |
| 6 | 19-31-1 | -24.6% |
There have been a handful of random profitable weeks scattered throughout the season, but I don’t believe it is a coincidence that Week 17 is atop the list. Though we’re not the same type of pastor you may have seen at church yesterday, we preach to our readers and spread our beliefs all the same. One of our biggest philosophies is betting against the public, but it doesn’t appear that is the wisest choice this week.
We won’t be offended if you sin and bet with the public this week, just promise us that you’ll be back for the playoffs.
Though it’s still very early, there are eight teams that are getting at least 70% of spread tickets:
- Washington (81%) at NY Giants
- Dallas (78%) at Philadelphia
- Kansas City (76%) at Denver
- LA Chargers (75%) vs. Oakland
- Jacksonville (73%) at Tennessee
- Indianapolis (73%) vs. Houston
- Cincinnati (73%) at Baltimore
- Buffalo (71%) at Miami
We’ll see how these hold up as the lines and percentages settle in. One game that is meaningless and could be an interesting betting story is KC/Denver. The Chiefs haven’t said anything yet, but given the line movement of KC -3 to DEN -3.5, we may very well see Patrick Mahomes starting at quarterback.
As more bets hit the market and additional contributing sportsbook percentages roll in, make sure to check the latest lines and percentages using our free NFL odds page.
Photo via Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Ice Cube
12/26/2017 at 3:16 pmAbsolutely hilarious. Keep up the great work. What’s the point of making money if you have no personality in the process?
Arec Barrwin
12/29/2017 at 7:35 pm3 years sample size? That is hardly a historical trend.