Final Four Odds and Trends since 2004
With the 2012 Final Four beginning on Saturday (3/31), we’ll take a look at the last eight years and how each Final Four match-up has shaped up. This year only one #1-seed remains, Kentucky, and they have been the clear-cut favorite to win the tournament since the season even started. They opened up as an 8.5-point favorite over #4-seed Louisville from the Big East and betting is roughly equal on both sides. In the other half of the bracket, #2-seed Ohio State is a 2.5-point favorite over Kansas and the slight majority of the betting public is backing the Buckeyes.
The table below shows the closing lines, closing betting %’s, and the results since 2004.
| Year | Closing Line | % on Favorite | Did Favorite Cover? | Closing Total | % on Over | Did Over Cover? |
| 2004 | Okla St. -4.5 vs GT | 46% | No | 139 | 38% | No |
| Duke -2 vs UCONN | 34% | No | 144.5 | 71% | Yes | |
| 2005 | Illinois -3 vs Louisville | 61% | Yes | 143.5 | 68% | No |
| UNC -5.5 vs MSU | 45% | Yes | 159 | 62% | Yes | |
| 2006 | LSU -1.5 vs UCLA | 37% | No | 123.5 | 68% | No |
| Florida -6 vs GMason | 52% | Yes | 159 | 69% | No | |
| 2007 | OSU -1 vs GTown | 47% | Yes | 130 | 69% | No |
| Florida -3 vs UCLA | 61% | Yes | 130 | 68% | Yes | |
| 2008 | Memphis -2 vs UCLA | 40% | Yes | 134 | 74% | Yes |
| UNC -2.5 vs Kansas | 70% | No | 157.5 | 56% | No | |
| 2009 | UCONN -4.5 vs MSU | 63% | No | 133.5 | 57% | Yes |
| UNC -7 vs Villanova | 51% | Yes | 161 | 58% | No | |
| 2010 | Butler -1.5 vs MSU | 53% | Yes | 126.5 | 62% | No |
| Duke -2.5 vs WVU | 55% | Yes | 130.5 | 65% | Yes | |
| 2011 | Butler -3.5 vs VCU | 50% | Yes | 133 | 60% | No |
| Kentucky -2 vs UCONN | 43% | No | 138.5 | 65% | No | |
| 2012 | Kentucky -8.5 vs Louisville | 51% | 138 | 75% | ||
| OSU -2.5 vs Kansas | 54% | 137 | 83% |
*Lines derived from Pinnacle
Basically, the public likes to bet on the favorites and the overs. It’s a known tendency in the sports betting world and it doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon. Of the 16 Final Four games in the last 8 years, the favorite has covered in 10 of them, and favorites of 5 points or more have gone 3-0 ATS. Linesmakers must be spot-on during the Final Four since betting has been roughly 50/50 for each matchup, with the lone exception in 2008 where UNC was a 2.5-point favorite over Kansas and getting more than 70% of spread bets. UNC ultimately did not cover that game and lost by 18 points.
Totals, on the other hand, tell a different story. The majority of the public (55% or greater) has been on the Over for 15 of the last 16 Final Four games, whether the total is 123 or 161, and this year is no different. 75% of the public is on the Over in the Kentucky/Louisville game and over 80% of the public is on the Over in the OSU/Kansas game as well. However, only 6 games of the 16 in that span have actually gone over the closing Total.
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