How did the MLB Trade Deadline Impact World Series Odds?
The 4 o’clock hour came and went with Sonny Gray being the only big name moved. And then, out of nowhere, the bow tie-touting Ken Rosenthal dropped the bomb that Yu Darvish had been traded at 4:12 PM eastern. Both trades were huge, but the big question is: how were World Series odds impacted?
WS changes
ChC 6/1 to 7/1
LAD 5/2 – 9/4
Hou 9/2 – 5/1
Tex 100/1 – 300/1
Det 300/1 – 500/1
NYY 10/1 – 7/1
Sea 50/1 – 60/1
Col 18/1 – 20/1— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) July 31, 2017
Jeff Sherman, manager of the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas, tweeted out the odds changes following the deadline. These changes correspond with the following swings in implied probability.
| Team | Post-deadline | Pre-deadline | Implied probability change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | +225 | +250 | +2.2% |
| Astros | +500 | +450 | -1.5% |
| Nationals | +600 | +600 | 0.0% |
| Cubs | +700 | +600 | -1.8% |
| Yankees | +700 | +1000 | +3.4% |
| Indians | +800 | +800 | 0.0% |
| Red Sox | +1200 | +1200 | 0.0% |
If you’re not in Las Vegas, these odds may mean nothing to you. If we look at the odds at a sharp offshore book like 5Dimes, we get a bit of a different picture.
| Team | 5Dimes (8/1) | 5Dimes (7/31) | Implied probability change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | +275 | +325 | +3.2% |
| Astros | +430 | +400 | -1.1% |
| Nationals | +650 | +650 | 0.0% |
| Cubs | +725 | +730 | +0.1% |
| Indians | +750 | +730 | -0.2% |
| Red Sox | +830 | +750 | -1.0% |
| Yankees | +1100 | +1350 | +1.4% |
Obviously, the Dodgers and Yankees benefited the most yesterday after they both were able to acquire pseudo-star caliber starters. Both Darvish and Gray have had injuries and inconsistent stretches in recent years, but both have also flashed greatness when they are on top of their game.
It’s clear that the odds in Vegas differ greatly from the odds offshore, but something that really sticks out is the odds movement for the Yankees. Westgate gave the Bronx Bombers much better odds in the first place, but also felt that the Gray trade was much more impactful. The odds movement at Westgate resulted in a 3.4% swing in IP, compared to 5Dimes’ 1.4%.
One reason for this is likely because the Yankees are still one of the most public and popular teams in the country. Vegas is sure to see their share of square bettors that come along placing futures bets on teams like the Yankees, Patriots, and Warriors. As a result, they need to shade those lines to limit their exposure. Offshore books deal with square bettors too, of course, but don’t have drunk vacationers stopping by and betting on their favorite teams.
Although the Darvish and Gray deals stole the show yesterday, it shouldn’t be forgotten that the Cubs deal for Jose Quintana a couple of weeks ago resulted in significant futures movement.
| Future | 7/14 (BetOnline) | Pre-Trade (BetOnline) |
|---|---|---|
| World Series | 9/1 | 10/1 |
| NL Pennant | 9/2 | 5/1 |
| Division | -170 | -120 |
| Playoff Odds | N/A | Yes: -155 No: +125 |
| Win Total O/U | N/A | 85 |
Their trades, along with their recent hot play, has helped them completely turn their season around in just a couple of weeks.
For comparison’s sake, the Cubs were +350 at Westgate on August 1st last year. I guess the Dodgers are pretty good.
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