2017-18 NBA Playoff Odds
For a few weeks, a couple of offshore sportsbooks have been teasing us with NBA playoff odds for a limited number of teams. 5Dimes, for example, only offered odds for the Timberwolves, 76ers, Pelicans, and Lakers.
Odds to make the #NBA playoffs (5Dimes)#TWolves -850#Sixers -300#Pelicans +195#Lakers +1000
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) July 9, 2017
We now have odds for every team in the league from BetOnline. You can also see how each team’s odds compare to their win totals.
| Team | Westgate (10/16) | BetOnline (10/16) | Westgate (8/29) | BetOnline (8/29) | BetOnline (7/13) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | Yes: +1400 No: -4000 | Yes: +700 No: -1000 | Yes: +1400 No: -4000 | Yes: +240 No: -300 | Yes: +190 No: -240 |
| Boston | Yes: -5000 No: +1500 | Yes: -1500 No: +1000 | Yes: -5000 No: +1500 | Yes: -1500 No: +800 | Yes: -800 No: +500 |
| Brooklyn | Yes: +1000 No: -2000 | Yes: +500 No: -650 | Yes: +1000 No: -2000 | Yes: +1200 No: -2500 | Yes: +2000 No: -8000 |
| Charlotte | Yes: -300 No: +240 | Yes: -240 No: +200 | Yes: -360 No: +280 | Yes: -175 No: +145 | Yes: -175 No: +145 |
| Chicago | Yes: +1600 No: -6000 | Yes: +1000 No: -1500 | Yes: +1500 No: -5000 | Yes: +800 No: -1500 | Yes: +1000 No: -2000 |
| Cleveland | Yes: -5000 No: +1500 | Yes: -2500 No: +1400 | Yes: -5000 No: +1500 | Yes: -2500 No: +1200 | Yes: -800 No: +500 |
| Dallas | Yes: +500 No: -700 | Yes: +400 No: -500 | Yes: +425 No: -600 | Yes: +400 No: -600 | Yes: +400 No: -600 |
| Denver | Yes: -310 No: +250 | Yes: -210 No: +175 | Yes: -360 No: +280 | Yes: -220 No: +175 | Yes: -230 No: +180 |
| Detroit | Yes: +110 No: -130 | Yes: -105 No: -115 | Yes: +130 No: -150 | Yes: -160 No: +130 | Yes: -160 No: +130 |
| Golden State | Yes: -100000 No: +10000 | Yes: -15000 No: +4000 | Yes: -100000 No: +10000 | Yes: -10000 No: +2500 | Yes: -10000 No: +2500 |
| Houston | Yes: -2000 No: +1000 | Yes: -1000 No: +700 | Yes: -2000 No: +1000 | Yes: -1250 No: +700 | Yes: -1250 No: +700 |
| Indiana | Yes: +400 No: -550 | Yes: +325 No: -400 | Yes: +375 No: -500 | Yes: +300 No: -400 | Yes: +300 No: -400 |
| LA Clippers | Yes: -200 No: +170 | Yes: -170 No: +150 | Yes: -150 No: +130 | Yes: -160 No: +130 | Yes: -160 No: +130 |
| LA Lakers | Yes: +500 No: -700 | Yes: +600 No: -800 | Yes: +550 No: -800 | Yes: +600 No: -1000 | Yes: +1000 No: -2000 |
| Memphis | Yes: +250 No: -310 | Yes: +190 No: -230 | Yes: +240 No: -300 | Yes: +100 No: -130 | Yes: +100 No: -130 |
| Miami | Yes: -400 No: +300 | Yes: -260 No: +200 | Yes: -400 No: +300 | Yes: -210 No: +170 | Yes: -200 No: +160 |
| Milwaukee | Yes: -700 No: +500 | Yes: -390 No: +320 | Yes: -800 No: +550 | Yes: -325 No: +250 | Yes: -300 No: +240 |
| Minnesota | Yes: -700 No: +500 | Yes: -600 No: +450 | Yes: -700 No: +500 | Yes: -700 No: +450 | Yes: -500 No: +350 |
| New Orleans | Yes: +150 No: -180 | Yes: +120 No: -140 | Yes: +150 No: -180 | Yes: +155 No: -185 | Yes: +135 No: -165 |
| New York | Yes: +450 No: -650 | Yes: +425 No: -550 | Yes: +425 No: -600 | Yes: +250 No: -325 | Yes: +250 No: -325 |
| Oklahoma City | Yes: -1600 No: +900 | Yes: -800 No: +600 | Yes: -1400 No: +800 | Yes: -600 No: +400 | Yes: -550 No: +375 |
| Orlando | Yes: +300 No: -400 | Yes: +240 No: -280 | Yes: +280 No: -360 | Yes: +190 No: -240 | Yes: +190 No: -240 |
| Philadelphia | Yes: -200 No: +170 | Yes: -220 No: +180 | Yes: -360 No: +280 | Yes: -280 No: +220 | Yes: -175 No: +145 |
| Phoenix | Yes: +1200 No: -3000 | Yes: +1200 No: -2000 | Yes: +1200 No: -3000 | Yes: +1400 No: -4000 | Yes: +2000 No: -8000 |
| Portland | Yes: -145 No: +125 | Yes: -125 No: +105 | Yes: -120 No: +100 | Yes: +110 No: -140 | Yes: +100 No: -130 |
| Sacramento | Yes: +1200 No: -3000 | Yes: +1400 No: -2500 | Yes: +1200 No: -3000 | Yes: +1400 No: -4000 | Yes: +1400 No: -4000 |
| San Antonio | Yes: -2000 No: +1000 | Yes: +1400 No: -2500 | Yes: -2000 No: +1000 | Yes: -1000 No: +600 | Yes: -1000 No: +600 |
| Toronto | Yes: -800 No: +550 | Yes: -475 No: +380 | Yes: -900 No: +600 | Yes: -550 No: +375 | Yes: -550 No: +375 |
| Utah | Yes: +110 No: -130 | Yes: +150 No: -170 | Yes: +140 No: -160 | Yes: +160 No: -195 | Yes: +180 No: -240 |
| Washington | Yes: -1100 No: +700 | Yes: -550 No: +425 | Yes: -800 No: +550 | Yes: -400 No: +300 | Yes: -400 No: +300 |
I’m surprised that the Cavaliers and Celtics aren’t closer to the Warriors, but I’m guessing the limits for these will keep your winnings to a minimum even if you want to max bet them.
There are a handful of teams that could be right around the #8 seed in their conference, with the playoff race in the western conference expected to be especially close. The first five teams are essentially locks, but there are six teams that follow whose implied probabilities range from 69.7% (Denver) to 35.7% (Utah). These teams with odds closer to an even payout on both sides are the ones that bettors can make some money on without taking a huge risk.
Depending on how you feel Anthony Davis and Demarcus Cousins will play together for a full year, there could be some value on New Orleans (Yes: +135). Personally, I don’t love the pair, but some believe that the abundance of talent will eventually outweigh any chemistry or off-court issues.
The Eastern Conference doesn’t have as large of a group of teams near the bubble, but the obvious story will be the 76ers. At -175 to make the playoffs, oddsmakers are clearly “trusting the process”. Philly is bursting at the seems with potential, but the question is whether they will be good now or in a few years. They finished with 28 wins last season, but were a much better team with Joel Embiid on the floor. If he can stay healthy, the additions of Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz, and JJ Redick should make them a dangerous foe even if there is a learning curve. I wouldn’t be surprised if this number went into the -200 or higher range.
Check back over the offseason to see how the odds updates and analysis. Feel free to comment with any thoughts or questions below, on live chat, or via email at help@sportsinsights.com.
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