How Have NCAA Futures Changed For Final Four Teams?
Throughout the season, many sportsbooks will post their “Futures,” which are the odds for various teams to win the championship. Based on how these teams perform, these future odds will fluctuate greatly as teams either under-perform or exceed expectations.
Kentucky is the perfect case study for how perception can change throughout the season. Entering the year, John Calipari and the Wildcats were the odds on favorite to win the National Championship with some sportsbooks posting prop bets regarding whether they would record an undefeated season.
After all, they returned a couple of potential first-round draft picks (C Willie Cauley-Stein & F Alex Poythress) and had landed arguably the greatest freshman class in NCAA history. However, the team started just 8-3 and were at one point unranked following a March 8th loss to Florida.
The table below, using futures from Sportsbook.com, shows the title chances for each of the remaining Final Four teams at various critical junctions throughout the season.
| Team | Pre-Season Odds (9-30-13) | Mid-Season Odds (1-21-14) | Pre-Tournament Odds (3-17-14) | Current Odds (4-5-14) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | +300 | +800 | +5000 | +260 |
| Florida | +2000 | +1200 | +550 | -115 |
| Connecticut | +4000 | +8000 | +9500 | +800 |
| Wisconsin | +5000 | +2000 | +1800 | +360 |
Our Bracket Simulator gives Florida (45.5%) the best chance to win the championship, followed by Wisconsin (21.2%) , Kentucky (19.2%) and Connecticut (14.1%). This works out to implied odds of +120, +372, +421 and +609, respectively.
Standard, Premium and Pro customers have access to our Futures page, so make sure to look at the breakdown of our available features to find out which package is right for you.
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