11
October
NCAAF Football Opening Line Report- Week 7
10/11/2011
Every Tuesday, we take a look at the early line movement and college football betting trends for the 15 most heavily bet games, in terms of the number of total bets.
| Team | Betting % | Current | Open | Notes |
| USC | 81% | -3.0 | -4.0 | Pac-12 powerhouses collide in this Thursday night showdown. With the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to take a point away from the underdog Golden Bears, the public has pounced on the Trojans winning by at least 4 points on the road against a Cal team that got embarrassed by Oregon 43-15 last weekend. |
| California | 19% | 3.0 | 4.0 | |
| Hawaii | 82% | -6.0 | -7.0 | Lone Friday night matchup puts WAC conference in national spotlight here. With reverse-line movement taking a valuable point away from the 2-4 Spartans, the public remains overwhelmingly confident in the 3-2 Warriors (who possess the 8th best passing offense in the nation) winning by at least one TD on the road. |
| San Jose State | 18% | 6.0 | 7.0 | |
| Clemson | 90% | -8.5 | -8.5 | One of the most lopsided games of the week, with 9 out of 10 bets expecting undefeated, 8th ranked Clemson to take down the 2-3 Terps by multiple scores, especially after star QB Tajh Boyd was upgraded to probable after getting injured last week vs. BC. |
| Maryland | 10% | 8.5 | 8.5 | |
| Georgia Tech | 88% | -7.0 | -8.0 | The public has fallen in love with the 12th ranked Yellow Jackets, who head to Cavalier country with an undefeated record and the 4th best rushing offense in the nation. In addition, the sportsbooks have adjusted their lines to take a pivotal point away from home dog Virginia, which is music to the ears of bettors taking the Yellow Jackets. |
| Virginia | 12% | 7.0 | 8.0 | |
| South Carolina | 80% | -3.0 | -5.0 | On the surface, this matchup would appear to be a no-brainer in favor of the 15th ranked Gamecocks. However, with news surfacing that QB Stephen Garcia has been dismissed from the team, the sportsbooks have adjusted their lines to take two huge points away from the Bulldogs, resulting in a virtual pick-em scenario for the public. |
| Mississippi State | 20% | 3.0 | 5.0 | |
| Baylor | 70% | 9.0 | 8.0 | After crushing Iowa St. 49-26 last weekend, the #20 Bears head to Aggie country looking to keep the momentum going against #21 A&M. And while many bettors believe the Aggies will escape with a win at home, 7 out of 10 bets are confident that the Bears will keep it close and lose by under double-digits. |
| Texas A&M | 30% | -9.0 | -8.0 | |
| LSU | 92% | -15.5 | -14.0 | After blowing out then #17 Florida 41-11 last weekend, the public is continues to pound #1 LSU, as they should. With a stifling defense and the return of QB Jordan Jefferson, the Tigers are getting more than 9 out of 10 spread bets against the 3-2 Volunteers, even after the sportsbooks have given Tennessee an extra 1.5 points. |
| Tennessee | 8% | 15.5 | 14.0 | |
| Oklahoma State | 91% | -7.5 | -8.5 | After being blown out at home by then #3 Oklahoma last week 55-17, the public has lost a great amount of confidence in the Longhorns. With Brandon Weeden, Justin Blackmon and the #1 offense in the country coming to town, the public seems to think this weekend could be a repeat, with more than 9 out of 10 bets expecting #6 OK St. to take down Texas by 8 points or more. |
| Texas | 9% | 7.5 | 8.5 | |
| Oklahoma | 88% | -35.5 | -35.0 | The biggest spread of the weekend here results from the Jayhawks losing by 42 to Ok. St. last week while #3 Oklahoma crushed Texas by 38. No doubt the Sooners will take down Kansas, but the question remains, by how much? |
| Kansas | 12% | 35.5 | 35.0 | |
| Stanford | 92% | -21.0 | -19.5 | The public no doubt loves Andrew Luck and the #7 Cardinals, but what they may not know is that Stanford possesses the 6th best scoring defense in the nation. And with the 3-2 Cougars coming off a 28-25 loss against unranked UCLA last weekend, the public expects another blowout on Saturday, with Stanford upending Wash. St. by more than 3 TDs. |
| Washington State | 8% | 21.0 | 19.5 | |
| Michigan | 71% | 1.5 | 3.0 | Great value here. Despite heading into Spartan territory with an undefeated record and 11th overall ranking, the Wolverines are getting 1.5 points. With such a small spread, the game is virtually a pick-em scenario and more than 7 out of 10 bets are taking the Wolverines. |
| Michigan State | 29% | -1.5 | -3.0 | |
| Arizona State | 26% | 16.0 | 14.5 | The 18th ranked Sun Devils head to #9 Oregon with a prolific offense and undefeated Pac-12 record. Helping AZ State’s cause, Oregon will be without their best offensive weapon, Heisman candidate LaMichael James, who broke his arm last week vs. Cal. Even so, the public remains confident in the Ducks at home, despite the sportsbooks giving an addition 1.5 points to the underdog Sun Devils. |
| Oregon | 74% | -16.0 | -14.5 | |
| Florida State | 86% | -13.5 | -12.0 | Despite falling to Wake Forest 35-30 last weekend, the public is confident that the Seminoles can rebound to take down the Blue Devils by at least a pair of TDs, especially after the news that star QB EJ Manuel is expected to start after battling a shoulder injury for the past two weeks. |
| Duke | 14% | 13.5 | 12.0 | |
| Florida | 34% | -2.0 | -2.0 | Despite being blown out by LSU 41-11 last week and falling out of the AP Top 25, Florida heads to #24 Auburn as a two-point favorite. As a result, the public is high on the Tigers taking care of business at home in this SEC showdown. |
| Auburn | 66% | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
| Alabama | 90% | -25.5 | -24.5 | The undefeated, 2nd ranked Tide invade Ole Miss with the #1 overall defense in college football, having given up just 42 points in six games. With the public overwhelmingly in favor of ‘Bama, the sportsbooks have adjusted their lines to give the Rebels an additional point. |
| Mississippi | 10% | 25.5 | 24.5 |
* Betting Percentages reflect Sports Insights’ Spread Betting Trends Data
** Opening and Current Lines from Pinnacle
Chris
10/11/2011 at 4:51 pmMichigan does not look like REVERSE line movement to me–just the usual kind.