NFL Betting, DFS Angles for Every Week 16 Game
You know what’s even better than Christmas?
Christmas football.
And you know what’s even better than Christmas football?
Betting on Christmas football.
That’s where we come in. Our gaggle of experts has crunched the numbers on every game and wrapped them up in one tidy package for you. It’s the gift that literally keeps on giving. Happy betting!
If there’s a specific matchup you want to jump to, click the quick links below. All info is as of Sunday morning.
COLTS AT RAVENS (-13.5) | O/U: 41
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | NFL Network
What the metrics say: Baltimore’s No. 2 defense in DVOA should dominate a Colts O-line that’s the only unit in the NFL to allow more than 50 sacks this season. Joe Flacco’s 3:1 TD:INT ratio over the past five games is a big reason the Ravens are 4-1 during that span. — Stuckey
Did you know? Over the past six games, Baltimore is averaging 31.3 points per game, second-most in the NFL, behind only the Eagles. — Stuckey
Trend to know: Flacco is 17-1 straight up as a double-digit favorite in his career, but just 8-10 ATS. When Baltimore is above .500, Flacco is just 1-7 ATS as a double-digit favorite in his past 8 games. — Evan Abrams and John Ewing
Pass or play? Pass on the -13.5, only so I can bet the Ravens on the second-half line. The Colts have been outscored 223-91 in the second half. — Stuckey
VIKINGS (-9) AT PACKERS | O/U: 40.5
Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET | NBC
Did you know? Vikings QB Case Keenum has never started a game in freezing temperatures. Not in the NFL with the Texans, Rams, and Vikings (lowest was 38 degrees), not during five years of college at Houston (lowest was 41 degrees), and, you know what, probably not even at Wylie High School in Abilene, Texas, where he made 42 starts. The forecast on Saturday night calls for temperatures of 12 degrees at kickoff and wind chills hovering around 0 degrees throughout the game. — Evan Abrams
Injuries to watch: The return of LT Riley Reiff (ankle, questionable), along with the presence of TE Kyle Rudolph (ankle, not listed), would give the Vikings a fully healthy line against a Packers front seven that could be without OLBs Clay Matthews (hamstring, questionable) and Nick Perry (ankle, doubtful), in addition to No. 1 CB Davon House (back, questionable) and CB Damarious Randall (knee, questionable). Vikings S Andrew Sendejo (ankle, questionable) will look to cause issues for Brett Hundley, as Aaron Rodgers’ season is over (collarbone, IR) with the Packers out of playoff contention. The offense is also without WR Davante Adams (concussion, out), meaning Vikings shut-down CB Xavier Rhodes will set his sights on Jordy Nelson. — Ian Hartitz
What the metrics say: The Vikings will have an enormous advantage on third down: Their offense ranks third in conversion percentage, compared to 30th for the Packers defense. And Minnesota’s D has allowed opponents to convert just 26.3% of third-down tries. That’d be the lowest mark in the NFL since at least 1991, and it’s bad news for a Packers offense that’ll be without its best QB, RB, and potentially Adams. — Stuckey
Pass or play? Pass. The line is too high on paper, but I can’t play a Rodgers-less Packers team a week after they got eliminated from the playoffs. Minnesota should dominate the trenches on both sides and have success vs. Green Bay’s banged up linebackers and cornerbacks in the passing game. — Stuckey
FALCONS AT SAINTS (-5) | O/U: 52.5
1 p.m. ET | FOX
What the metrics say: Both offenses will be able to run the ball, as each rank in the top-10 in yards per game and yards per carry and are anchored by an explosive pair of RBs. They’ll be facing two defenses that cannot stop the run: Atlanta allows 5.3 yards per carry (24th), while the Saints give up 4.5 (26th). — Stuckey
Trend to know: Games in this series tend to be close, and the underdog has had success against the spread since 2009 (13-4). —John Ewing
Injuries to watch: The Saints defense has three starters out for the season in LB A.J. Klein (groin, IR), DE Alex Okafor (Achilles, IR), and S Kenny Vaccaro (groin, IR), and they’ll also be without DE Trey Hendrickson (ankle, out) against a suddenly healthy Falcons offense. RB Tevin Coleman (concussion, not listed) is good to go, and LG Andy Levitre (triceps, questionable) continues to progress through his injury. Julio Jones (ankle/thumb, not listed) will play despite not practicing this week. The Saints offense is also getting healthier, as WR Ted Ginn Jr. (ribs, not listed) and G Larry Warford (concussion, not listed) are expected to suit up Sunday. — Ian Hartitz
Did you know? Drew Brees is 19-11 ATS as a member of the Saints when avenging a divisional loss. Brees and the Saints lost to the Falcons 20-17 two weeks ago. — Evan Abrams
Pass or play? Pass. Atlanta’s ability to convert third downs was a big story of the first matchup. They’ll have the advantage there again. These two teams are much closer than this line suggests, but I hate this spot for the Falcons, who are playing on a short week and hitting the road for a second consecutive game. — Stuckey
BILLS AT PATRIOTS (-11.5) | O/U: 46.5
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Betting market: New England opened as 13-point home favorites and, with the majority of spread tickets and dollars taking Buffalo, the line has ticked down to -11.5. Our Bet Signals data has remained quiet regarding this game, indicating the movement is largely due to steady, one-sided action, as opposed to quick hits from professional money. — PJ Walsh
What the metrics say: The Bills are one of only five teams in the NFL that run the ball more than 30 times per game on average. That is the formula for beating the Patriots, as the New England defense is allowing 4.9 yards per rush (dead last in the NFL) and is dealing with a number of injuries on their defensive front. — Stuckey
DFS edge: Over his past four games, Brady has fewer fantasy points (15.01 DraftKings and 14.76 FanDuel PPG) than Browns rookie DeShone Kizer (15.36 DraftKings and 14.86 FanDuel PPG). As Brady has aged, he’s tended to underperform in the second half of the season against teams familiar with him. Since 2011 he has averaged 21.0 fantasy PPG against the AFC East in the second half and 26.0 against all other opponents. The Patriots are big home favorites, but they’re once again facing a divisional opponent, and their matchup isn’t easy: The Bills defense has held opponents below their Vegas expectations in a league-high 10 games. — Matthew Freedman
Injuries to watch: Patriots WR Chris Hogan (shoulder) is not expected to play, and RB Rex Burkhead (knee, out) is reportedly expected to be out until the playoffs. Bills WR Kelvin Benjamin (knee, probable) has been playing through a torn meniscus in recent weeks, but the outlook is less optimistic for CB E.J. Gaines (knee, questionable). LeSean McCoy & Co. will benefit from the absence of 6’6″ 350-pound DT Alan Branch (knee, out). — Ian Hartitz
Pass or play? Play Buffalo +11.5. This line is too high with the Bills playing for their playoff lives. I expect Buffalo to feed LeSean McCoy, helping to keep Brady off of the field. Even the Patriots have to be a little emotionally flat after last week’s win over Pittsburgh. The Bills can keep this within 10. — Stuckey
RAMS (-6.5) AT TITANS | O/U: 47
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Betting market: This matchup is shaping up to be one of the largest sharp vs. public disagreements of the weekend with recreational players riding L.A.’s momentum, but professionals selling the overreaction. Sharps were all over the +7, bumping the line down to +6.5.— PJ Walsh
What the metrics say: Tennessee matches up well with the Rams. They have the firepower on defense to stop Todd Gurley on the ground, ranking third overall in yards per rush allowed. And with Marcus Mariota getting healthier and more mobile, Tennessee should be able to take advantage of the Rams’ biggest weakness: rushing defense, which allows 4.7 yards per carry (30th overall). L.A. also has looming questions in its secondary with CB Kayvon Webster is out of the year. — Stuckey
Trend to know: Teams that opened as favorites of 7 or more points on the road, as the Rams did here, have gone 97-124-3 (43.9%) ATS since 2003. — John Ewing
Pass or play? Play the Titans +7 if you can find it. If you can’t, +6.5 or +6 will do. A home pup that will be able to run the ball and stop the run? Yes please. — Stuckey
DOLPHINS AT CHIEFS (-10.5) | O/U: 43.5
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Weather report: Keep an eye on the wind forecast. According to our weather data (as of Sunday morning), 14 mph winds were expected at kickoff, with them getting stronger throughout the game. Unders have gone 436-348-10 (55.6%) since 2003 in games with winds of 10+ mph at kickoff. — PJ Walsh
DFS edge: Head coach Andy Reid relinquished play-calling duties after scoring a combined 19 points against the Giants and Bills in Weeks 11-12. Since then, offensive coordinator Matt Nagy has fed Kareem Hunt 23.6 touches per game. Only Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell have scored more DraftKings PPG over the past three weeks. Hunt’s salary has skyrocketed up to pre-Nagy levels, but his new-found workload sets him up nicely for his matchup against the Dolphins’ 23rd-ranked defense in DVOA. Miami has allowed an additional 1.5 yards per carry and 7.7 PPG on the road this season. — Ian Hartitz
Did you know? Over the past three seasons, Andy Reid and the Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS when facing a team below .500 at home. In all seven games, the Chiefs were at least 6-point favorites, as they are against the Dolphins. — Evan Abrams
Pass or play? Pass. No interested in laying 10+ with K.C. after an emotional win last week. — Stuckey
BUCCANEERS AT PANTHERS (-10.5) | O/U: 46.5
1 p.m. ET | FOX
What the metrics say: The Bucs are the NFL’s worst defense at getting after the QB (18 sacks this season), and as a result, they really struggle against the pass, ranking 29th in pass DVOA. Tampa’s defense has multiple starters on defense who are questionable (Robert Ayers, Gerald McCoy, Lavante David). — Stuckey
Trend to know: Favorites of 10 or more points in division games are 79-107-5 (42.5%) ATS since 2003. — John Ewing
DFS edge: As mentioned on the Week 16 Daily Fantasy Flex, Newton is a potential chalk lock. Since the Panthers traded away Kelvin Benjamin, the QB’s play has radically improved. Newton is throwing the ball less often per game (28.3 attempts vs. 33) and accumulating fewer passing yards (186.8 vs. 229.1), but he’s scoring more touchdowns (2.16 vs. 1.63), throwing far fewer interceptions (0.17 vs. 1.38), and running for way more yardage (64.7 vs. 31.9). Newton is the highest-rated quarterback in the Bales Model, and he has the position’s highest median and floor projections. — Matthew Freedman
Did you know? Cam Newton has never lost as a home favorite of 7 or more points: 11-0 SU and 9-1-1 ATS. Meanwhile, Jameis Winston is 0-4 ATS in his career against Newton, failing to cover by an average of 11.8 points per game. — Evan Abrams and John Ewing
Pass or play? Pass. No value here. My numbers make the Panthers -10. This is a horrendous spot for Tampa. The Bucs are traveling on a short week after a heartbreaking divisional loss. Carolina will be revved up and ready to go with a playoff spot on the line. — Stuckey
CHARGERS (-6.5) AT JETS | O/U: 43
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Betting market: This line has pinged around between 6.5 and 7 all week, with +7 getting steamed by professional money on multiple occasions. The public is all over the Chargers, backing them at a 65% clip as of Sunday morning. — PJ Walsh
Trends to know? Philip Rivers started out his career with a 17-1 straight-up record when playing outdoors on the road in December and January regular-season games. But he hasn’t won a game the past seven times he’s been in this spot. Rivers is also 8-17-1 ATS as a road favorite of over a FG in his career. — Evan Abrams and Stuckey
Injuries to watch: The Jets’ typically dominant defensive line will be without a top stalwart, as DE Mo Wilkerson (coach’s decision) isn’t expected to play. DE Leonard Williams (concussion, not listed) is good to go. The Jets’ skill position players aren’t 100 percent either, although each of RB Matt Forte (knee, questionable) and RB Elijah McGuire (illness, questionable) are tentatively expected to play. While Chargers WR Keenan Allen (back, not listed) will play, the outlook is less optimistic elsewhere, as the offense will be without TE Hunter Henry (kidney, IR) and potentially LT Russell Okung (groin, questionable) and RT Joe Barksdale (hip, questionable). The defense will be without LB Denzel Perryman (hamstring, out) in addition to DT Corey Liuget (knee, out). — Ian Hartitz
Pass or play? I played the Jets +7. This is a major letdown spot for the Chargers, after their long run at the division crown came to an end in Kansas City. I don’t trust Rivers’ aging arm in cold conditions. Plus, the Jets should be able to run the ball. L.A.’s defense ranks 31st in yards per carry allowed (4.8) and will be without their best run-stopping LB and DT (Perryman and Liuget). — Stuckey
LIONS (-3) AT BENGALS | O/U: 44
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Betting market: In early betting, professionals and the public teamed up to push the line from Lions -3.5 to -5. However, sharp Cincy buyback hit the market late Thursday, dropping the line back down to -3 on Friday night. It’s stayed there ever since, even with Detroit being the public’s favorite play of the day (71% of tickets). — PJ Walsh
Injuries to watch: The Lions’ offensive line is a trainwreck at the moment, as each of C Travis Swanson (concussion, out), G T.J. Lang (foot, doubtful), and RT Rick Wagner (ankle, questionable) are uncertain to suit up Sunday. Still, Detroit will benefit from a banged-up Bengals defense missing starters CB Adam Jones (groin, IR), LB Nick Vigil (ankle, out), and LB Kevin Minter (hamstring, IR). The Bengals are at least a bit healthier on defense, as they’ll welcome back CB Dre Kirkpatrick (concussion, not listed) and LB Vontaze Burfict (concussion, not listed). RB Joe Mixon (concussion, not listed) will return and look to provide a spark on offense, but he’ll have to do so without RT Andre Smith (knee) and LT Cedric Ogbuehi (shoulder, out).— Ian Hartitz
Pass or play? Pass. Who’s playing in this game for the Bengals? Has Cincy quit? Will any fans even be here? Will the Lions have anybody healthy on their offensive line? What a horrendous football game. — Stuckey
BRONCOS AT REDSKINS (-3) | O/U: 40.5
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Injuries to watch: The Broncos are expected to start QB Paxton Lynch (ankle, questionable) if he’s healthy enough to play now that QB Trevor Siemian’s season is over (shoulder, IR). Both WR Emmanuel Sanders (ankle) and WR Cody Latimer (thigh) will miss Sunday’s game. The Redskins defense will be without LBs Zach Brown (ankle, questionable) and Ryan Anderson (knee, out). The Redskins could benefit from the absence of Broncos OLB Shane Ray (wrist, IR), although they have their own concerns at the line of scrimmage with LT Trent Williams (knee, IR) done for the season and RT Morgan Moses (ankle, questionable) not guaranteed to suit up. The backfield is a giant question mark outside of pass-catching back Kapri Bibbs, as RB Samaje Perine (groin, questionable) will be a game-time decision, and backup LeShun Daniels (hand, out) is already sidelined. — Ian Hartitz
Did you know? Broncos have failed to cover eight of their past nine games on the road dating back to last season. Denver has only covered one game on the road this season, their fewest since 2007 (finished 1-7 ATS). — Evan Abrams
Pass or play? I played Denver at +3.5 (and as of Friday morning, some 3.5s were still out there). The Broncos should be able to run the ball against a Redskins defensive line ranked dead last in defending the run, as measured by adjusted line yards. I also expect Denver’s top-10 pass-rush to have a field day against Washington’s banged up and struggling O-line (25th in adjusted sack rate). — Stuckey
BROWNS AT BEARS (-5.5) | O/U: 38
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Betting market: Death, taxes, and sharp bettors taking the Browns. Once again, early money came down on Cleveland, driving the market from +7 to a consensus of +5.5. The wrinkle this week? The public has also jumped aboard the Cleveland caboose, with the majority of the tickets taking the Browns (see chart below). — PJ Walsh
Weather report: The forecast (as of Sunday morning) calls for snow throughout the game and winds that could reach upwards of 12 mph, which could make scoring even more challenging than usual for these two offenses. — Scott T. Miller
Did you know? John Fox is 0-7 SU and ATS when listed as the favorite as the Bears’ head coach, failing to cover the spread by 12 PPG. — Evan Abrams
What the metrics say: You can count on the Browns’ run defense, as they still lead the NFL in rush yards per carry allowed (3.3). That should come in handy against a run-heavy Bears offense that averages 4.4 yards per carry (eighth best in the NFL). — Stuckey
Pass or play? Unfortunately, I have to play the Browns if the line gets to +7, but luckily, it looks like it’s not going to hit that number. — Stuckey
JAGUARS (-4) AT 49ERS | O/U: 42
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Betting market: Jacksonville opened as 5.5-point favorites and the line dropped down to -4 behind some early sharp action on San Fran. Our Bet Signals data tracked multiple steam moves on both sides of this game, indicating even the professionals don’t agree on who to take. — PJ Walsh
Trend to know: The Jags are getting lots of love from public bettors after beating Houston 45-7 in Week 15. Teams off a big home win (20 or more points) have gone 200-256-18 (43.9%) ATS in their next game. — John Ewing
Injuries to watch: Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone confirmed Wednesday that RB Leonard Fournette (quad, not listed) will suit up Sunday. WR Marqise Lee (ankle, out) and WR Allen Hurns (ankle, questionable) both won’t play. The 49ers offense is already facing an uphill battle against the Jaguars’ league-best defense in DVOA, and they’ll have to move the ball without the services of RT Trenton Brown (shoulder, IR). — Ian Hartitz
What the metrics say: The Jags’ red zone D has been silly, leading the NFL in TD rate allowed at 35%. And it actually gets better on the road (20%). The next-closest team on the road is at 40%. — Stuckey
Pass or play? Play the 49ers +4. San Fran has looked like a completely different team since Jimmy G took over. This is not a great spot for the Jags. They could potentially have the division wrapped up by kickoff if the Rams defeat the Titans. Plus, Jacksonville has to travel across country for a out-of-conference road game a week after a 38-point home win with a trip to Nashville looming in Week 17. That’s a lot to ask. — Stuckey
SEAHAWKS AT COWBOYS (-3.5) | O/U: 47
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
Betting market: The Cowboys opened as 4.5-point favorites and got up to -5 at Pinnacle on Sunday morning. But sharp money steamed the Seahawks at +5, pushing the line down to +3.5, despite Dallas receiving 55% of the total spread tickets. — PJ Walsh
Trends to know: The Seahawks lost by 35 points last week. The following nuggets apply to teams coming off losses of five TDs or more:
- Overall (since 2003): 52-29-5 ATS (64.2%)
- When listed as the underdog: 41-21-5 ATS (66.1%)
- When getting fewer than than 49% of the overall betting tickets: 41-19-5 ATS (68.3%)
- When listed as an underdog of more than a field goal: 37-14-2 ATS (72.5%) — Evan Abrams and John Ewing
Our drunk buddy is streaking!#Seahawks at #Cowboys (-5)
Who do YOU think is the Better Bettor? pic.twitter.com/TTXNhIQ4j5
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) December 22, 2017
DFS edge: Ezekiel Elliott’s impact on the Cowboys offense is evident, as they’ve averaged 28.3 PPG and 148.1 rushing yards per game in eight games with their RB1 compared to 18.3 PPG and 121.3 yards in six games without. There’s no reason to expect a limited workload in his first game back with the team’s playoff hopes on the line, and that workload will likely be heavy considering only Le’Veon Bell received more touches in Weeks 1-9. His matchup against the Seahawks’ ninth-ranked defense in rush DVOA isn’t ideal, although they’ve allowed an additional 5.1 PPG and 24 rushing yards per game in 14 games without SS Kam Chancellor (neck, IR) since 2015. — Ian Hartitz
Pass or play? Pass. My numbers make Seattle a 3-point dog on the road, which means there’s certainly value in the Seahawks. Seattle with have the coaching advantage and the better QB in the fourth quarter. But the injuries are a concern, and I’m ultimately not sure where this team’s head is at, especially after seeing the since-deleted Bobby Wagner tweet calling out Earl Thomas. — Stuckey
For more angles on this game, check out our expanded betting guide.
GIANTS AT CARDINALS (-3) | O/U: 39.5
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
Betting market: There is no need for cutting-edge betting data here: Eli Manning opened as a dog to Drew Stanton and the market has taken enough Giants money to move the line from +4.5 to +3, as of Thursday evening. — PJ Walsh
Trend to know: Stanton has completed 52.5% of his passes and thrown 17 TDs vs. 21 INTs in his career, but the 10-year veteran is 11-4-2 ATS as a starter. The NFL is a weird place. — John Ewing
Pass or play? Hard pass. I can’t back Stanton as a fave with zero running back, but this is brutal spot for G-Men after suffering a tough loss against a rival and having to travel across the country for a completely meaningless game. Staying far away. — Stuckey
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