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November
NFL Opening Line Report – Week 11
11/14/2011
In NFL
Every Monday, we take a look at the opening lines for next week’s NFL games:
| Team | Betting % | Open | Current | Notes |
| Jets | 82% | -5.0 | -4.0 | Despite completing just two passes last week against the Chiefs, Tim Tebow led the Broncos to a 17-10 victory on the road and is now 3-1 this year as a starter. However, with the Jets coming off a 37-16 shellacking at home against the hated Pats, the betting public is fading the Tebow hype and sticking with Rex Ryan’s bunch to bounce back and escape Mile High with at least a five point victory in the lone Thursday night game in the NFL. |
| Broncos | 28% | 5.0 | 4.0 | |
| Chargers | 33% | 4.0 | 4.0 | After starting off the season a lackluster 2-3, Jay Cutler and the Bears have now won four in a row by a combined score of 130-65, with their vaunted defense playing reminiscent of their ’06 Super Bowl run. With no line movement thus far, the betting public remains heavily in favor of Lovie Smith’s team at home, with nearly seven out of ten spread bets confident the 6-3 Bears can take down Phillip Rivers and the jekyll-and-hyde Chargers by at least five points at Soldier Field. |
| Bears | 67% | -4.0 | -4.0 | |
| Bengals | 72% | 9.0 | 7.0 | Despite the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to take two pivotal points away from the road dog Bengals, the betting public is sticking with Andy Dalton & Co. to keep it close in Baltimore, especially with Cincy hanging tough against the Steelers last week and the Ravens looking disinterested in a 22-17 road loss to the lowly Seahawks. |
| Ravens | 28% | -9.0 | -7.0 | |
| Titans | 20% | 6.5 | 6.5 | The Falcons lost a heartbreaker in overtime last week when Head Coach Mike Smith elected to go for it on 4th and short in his own territory and got stuffed by the Saints’ stout D-line. However, the betting public seems to have a short memory, as 8 out of 10 spread bets are sticking with Atlanta to win by 7 or more against a 5-4 Titans team who has been plagued by inconsistency, yet looked good last week in a 30-3 upset victory on the road against the high-flying Panthers |
| Falcons | 80% | -6.5 | -6.5 | |
| Cardinals | 31% | 10.0 | 9.0 | This NFC West showdown currently features one of the biggest spreads of the week, with the 8-1 49ers opening as big favorites at home. Even though the 3-6 Cards are coming off a big come-from-behind win against the Eagles on the road with back-up John Skelton at the helm, the betting public isn’t expecting lightning to strike twice in two weeks for Arizona, as nearly seven out of ten spread bets are picking Jim Harbaugh’s team to secure a double-digit win at Candlestick in front of their home crowd. |
| 49ers | 69% | -10.0 | -9.0 | |
| Panthers | 23% | 7.0 | 6.5 | After starting off the year 5-0 for the first time in decades, the Lions have now lost three of their last four games and find themselves in a dead heat with the Bears for 2nd place in the NFC North. However, with Cam Newton’s Panthers taking a step back last week in a 27-point loss at home to the Titans, the betting public is siding with the Lions to bounce back and cover the spread at home, especially after the sportsbooks adjusted their lines to take a big half point away from road dog Carolina. |
| Lions | 77% | -7.0 | -6.5 | |
| Cowboys | 82% | -7.5 | -7.5 | This NFC East showdown features two clubs going in totally opposite directions, with the Cowboys having won two straight and the ‘Skins losers of five in a row. As a result, the betting public is heavily in favor of the streaking ‘Boys winning by eight or more on the road, especially with Washington looking more and more lost each week on offense. |
| Redskins | 18% | 7.5 | 7.5 | |
| Jaguars | 70% | 1.5 | 0.0 | After opening with the lowly Browns as 1.5 point favorites at home, the sportsbooks have adjusted their lines to present the betting public with a pick-em scenario. With Cleveland caught in the midst of a three-game losing streak, seven out of ten spread bets are picking Blaine Gabbert and the young Jags to escape the Dawg Pound with a victory. |
| Browns | 30% | -1.5 | 0.0 | |
| Seahawks | 65% | 3.0 | 2.5 | After escaping Cleveland with a 13-12 victory last week, the 2-7 Rams opened this NFC West clash as 3 point favorites at home. However, despite the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to take a valuable half-point away from the road dog Seahawks, the betting public is sticking with Seattle (who looked impressive in a 22-17 win over the Ravens last week) to either win straight up or lose by two or less at Edward Jones Dome. |
| Rams | 35% | -3.0 | -2.5 | |
| Bills | 76% | 2.0 | 2.5 | After starting the year 4-1, the Bills have come crashing down to Earth and lost three of their last four, while the formerly winless Dolphins have rebounded after an 0-7 start to win two straight. With the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to give the road dog Bills an additional half-point, the betting public is pounding Buffalo to bounce back and either win straight up or lose by two or less in the AFC East showdown. |
| Dolphins | 24% | -2.0 | -2.5 | |
| Eagles | N/A | N/A | N/A | This game is currently off the board for most books due to the fact that Michael Vick suffered two broken ribs last week in a demoralizing loss at home to Arizona. The Giants had opened as three point favorites at home for some books, however stay tuned to this line as it is sure to return once Vick’s status for Sunday clears up. |
| Giants | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Patriots | N/A | N/A | N/A | After losing two straight, Brady and the Pats rebounded last week to secure a momentous 37-16 victory on the road against the Jets and their #1 defense in what could turn out to be a season changing victory. However, due to the fact that Matt Cassel’s most recent hand injury has his status in jeopardy for this game, the sportsbooks have yet to release their lines. Belichick’s boys will most definitely be a big favorite at home on MNF, however, the question remains: by how much? |
| Chiefs | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Buccaneers | N/A | N/A | N/A | Aaron Rodgers and the defending champion Packers look poised to challenge the ’72 Dolphins as the only undefeated team in NFL history. Nevertheless, the sportsbooks are waiting to release their lines for this matchup until after the Packers play the Vikings tonight on MNF. |
| Packers | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
* Betting Percentages reflect Sports Insights’ Spread Betting Trends Data
** Opening and Current Lines from CRIS unless otherwise stated.
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