31
October
NFL Opening Line Report- Week 9
10/31/2011
In NFL
Every Monday, we take a look at the opening lines for next week’s NFL games:
| Team | Betting % | Open | Current | Notes |
| Falcons | 84% | -8.0 | -7.0 | Coming off a bye week, the 4-3 Falcons invade Lucas Oil Stadium rested and rejuvenated, while the cellar-dwelling Colts are still searching for their first win of the season. With the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to take a valuable point away from home dog Indy, the betting public is overwhelmingly in favor of Matt Ryan and Co. winning by at least 8 points on the road. However, with the lowly Rams shocking Drew Brees and the Saints on Sunday to pick up their first win of the year, could the Manning-less Colts be the next winless team to get of the schnide at home? Thus far, more than 8 out of 10 spread wagers are confident that recent history will not repeat itself. |
| Colts | 16% | 8.0 | 7.0 | |
| 49ers | 86% | -4.5 | -3.5 | The upstart 49ers have quickly become a public favorite thanks to their 6-1 start and charismatic head coach Jim Harbaugh. Toss in the fact that the ‘Skins have dropped three in a row by a combined score of 76-33, including a 23-0 shutout loss to Buffalo last week (the first time ever a Shanahan-led offense has been held scoreless in a game) and the public is pounding visiting San Fran, especially with the sportsbooks taking a valuable point away from home dog Washington. |
| Redskins | 14% | 4.5 | 3.5 | |
| Baltimore | 23% | 3.0 | 3.0 | The 6-2 Steelers are flying high after their resounding win over Tom Brady and the Pats last week, while the 5-2 Ravens barely escaped M&T Bank Stadium with a win over the dysfunctional 1-6 Cardinals. As a result, more than three out of four spread bets are taking Pittsburgh to win by at least 4 in the newest chapter of the NFL’s best current rivalry. |
| Pittsburgh | 77% | -3.0 | -3.0 | |
| Giants | 53% | 8.5 | 8.5 | It took a while last Sunday but the G-Men finally turned it on late to take down the winless Dolphins 20-17 in the Meadowlands to improve to 5-2. However, they face a big test on the road against a 5-2 Pats team with a whole lot to prove after their lackluster performance against Pittsburgh. Even so, the public is slightly in favor of the Giants keeping it close, especially with Eli throwing the ball well lately and the porous Pats secondary looking worse and worse each week. |
| Patriots | 47% | -8.5 | -8.5 | |
| Bengals | 70% | 3.0 | 3.0 | Rookies Andy Dalton and A.J. Green have turned the Bengals into a legitimate contender faster than anyone would have expected, while Marvin Lewis has the Cincy D ranked in the top-10 in both opponents rushing and passing yards. Following their convincing win at Seattle this past weekend (which is one of the toughest places for opposing teams to play in the NFL), the public isn’t just drinking the Cincy kool-aid, they’re pounding it, with 7 out of 10 bets confident the high-rising Bengals can either win straight up or lose by two or less on the road. |
| Titans | 30% | -3.0 | -3.0 | |
| Jets | 45% | 1.5 | 1.5 | This AFC East showdown presents great value to the betting public, with the small spread resulting in a virtual pick-em scenario. After shutting out the sinking ‘Skins 23-0 last week at “home” in Toronto, the 5-2 Bills will surely be excited to return to Ralph Wilson Stadium and play in front of their rabid fans. However, coming off a 27-21 over San Diego followed by a bye-week, one would assume Rex Ryan’s group is ready and rested for this matchup. Thus far, the betting public is slightly in favor of the Bills circling the wagons and taking down the Jets by at least 2 points at home. |
| Bills | 55% | -1.5 | -1.5 | |
| Buccaneers | 35% | 7.5 | 8.0 | After blowing out the Colts 62-7 two weeks ago, the Saints came back to Earth this past Sunday with a shocking 31-21 loss to St. Louis. However, the betting public seems to view that loss as an aberration, not a trend, with more than 6 out of 10 spread bets picking New Orleans to bounce back and win by at least 9 points in the SuperDome. |
| Saints | 65% | -7.5 | -8.0 | |
| Browns | 39% | 10.5 | 11.0 | The 3-4 Browns are the poster child for inconsistency this year, rotating wins and losses seemingly each week, while star RB Peyton Hillis remains MIA with a bad hammy. In turn, the 5-3 Texans have won two in a row and seem to have the inside track on the AFC South division. Making matters worse for Cleveland, Houston could get WR Andre Johnson back from injury. The spread may be large, but more than 6 out of 10 bets are confident Arian Foster and Co. can take down the visiting Browns by at least 12 points at Reliant Stadium. |
| Texans | 61% | -10.5 | -11.0 | |
| Seahawks | 40% | 12.5 | 12.0 | Jerry Jones’s ‘Boys looked offensively inept in a 34-7 shellacking against Vick and the “Dream Team” last week on SNF. However, facing the 2-5 Seahawks at home could be just what the doctor ordered for Tony Romo’s bunch. With the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to take a valuable half-point away from lowly Seattle, six out of ten spread bets are confident the ‘Boys can bounce back at home to take down the moribund ‘Hawks by nearly two TDs. |
| Cowboys | 60% | -12.5 | -12.0 | |
| Broncos | 25% | 9.0 | 7.5 | After kicking off the Tebow-era with a thrilling come-from-behind win on the road against Miami, the Broncos were exposed as pretenders, not contenders, by the Lions 45-10 last week. With the sportsbooks taking a big 1.5 points away from road dog Denver, 3 out of 4 spread bets are confident that the Raiders can beat John Fox’s team by at least 8 points, especially following a vital bye-week that allowed QB Carson Palmer to get acclimated to the new system. |
| Raiders | 75% | -9.0 | -7.5 | |
| Bears | 47% | 7.0 | 6.5 | After their 34-7 manhandling of the Cowboys last week on SNF, in which the Eagles’ high-flying offense looked unstoppable, all those over-hyped “Dream Team” references seem to be resurfacing. However, Andy Reid’s group will be facing a 4-3 Bears team coming off a bye in need of a win to keep pace with the Packers and Lions in the NFC North. As a result, the betting public is almost evenly split as to who to take, with a very slight edge in favor of the Eagles winning by a TD at home. |
| Eagles | 53% | -7.0 | -6.5 | |
| Dolphins | N/A | N/A | N/A | With the Chiefs facing off against AFC West rival San Diego tonight on MNF, the sportsbooks have yet to release their lines for this matchup. You can bet the Chiefs will be a favorite at home against the winless ‘Fins, question is: by how much? |
| Chiefs | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Packers | N/A | N/A | N/A | Same scenario here, with the sportsbooks waiting to see how San Diego plays on MNF against KC before releasing their lines. The undefeated Packers will no doubt be favored, however this road matchup could be a huge test for Aaron Rodgers and the defending champs, especially if they have their sights set on an undefeated season. |
| Chargers | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
* Betting Percentages reflect Sports Insights’ Spread Betting Trends Data
** Opening and Current Lines from CRIS unless otherwise stated.
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