NFL Week 1 Futures Changes
After just 1 game for 28 NFL teams, new futures prices have shown how the market has reacted after seeing just 1/16th of the season. Below shows the futures prices both before and after Week 1 (via BetOnline). I also converted those moneylines into implied percentages. The table is sorted by change in percentage, meaning the teams that saw their implied odds increase the most are at the top.
| Odds Prior | Odds After | % Prior | % After | % Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 550 | 450 | 15.4% | 18.2% | 2.8% |
| 49ers | 1000 | 800 | 9.1% | 11.1% | 2.0% |
| Eagles | 2500 | 1600 | 3.8% | 5.9% | 2.0% |
| Bengals | 3300 | 2500 | 2.9% | 3.8% | 0.9% |
| Dolphins | 7500 | 4500 | 1.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Lions | 4500 | 2200 | 2.2% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| Titans | 15000 | 8500 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Vikings | 10000 | 6500 | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Jets | 8000 | 7500 | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Falcons | 4000 | 4000 | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0% |
| Bills | 10000 | 8500 | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Broncos | 450 | 450 | 18.2% | 18.2% | 0% |
| Steelers | 4000 | 4000 | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0% |
| Jaguars | 25000 | 30000 | 0.4% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| Panthers | 4000 | 4000 | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0% |
| Texans | 5000 | 6000 | 2.0% | 1.6% | -0.3% |
| Raiders | 15000 | 30000 | 2.0% | 1.6% | -0.3% |
| Chargers | 3300 | 5000 | 2.9% | 2.0% | -1.0% |
| Chiefs | 6600 | 9500 | 1.5% | 1.0% | -0.5% |
| Cowboys | 6000 | 8500 | 1.6% | 1.2% | -0.5% |
| Buccaneers | 7500 | 12500 | 1.3% | 0.8% | -0.5% |
| Browns | 8000 | 15000 | 1.2% | 0.7% | -0.6% |
| Rams | 8000 | 15000 | 1.2% | 0.7% | -0.6% |
| Saints | 900 | 1100 | 10.0% | 8.3% | -1.7% |
| Giants | 4000 | 9500 | 2.4% | 1.0% | -1.4% |
| Cardinals | 3300 | 4000 | 2.9% | 2.4% | -0.5% |
| Redskins | 5000 | 10000 | 2.0% | 1.0% | -1.0% |
| Ravens | 3300 | 6500 | 2.9% | 1.5% | -1.4% |
| Colts | 2000 | 3500 | 4.8% | 2.8% | -2.0% |
| Bears | 2500 | 5000 | 3.8% | 2.0% | -1.9% |
| Patriots | 750 | 1000 | 11.8% | 9.1% | -2.7% |
| Packers | 800 | 1200 | 11.1% | 7.7% | -3.4% |
Note: All lines are from BetOnline and some lines have changed after the post was originally published.
The two biggest movers both played in the opening game on Thursday night. The defending champion Seahawks dominated on the field and their futures moved from +550 to +450 (a 2.8% increase). The team that they dominated, the Packers, saw their odds plummet from +800 to +1400 (a 4.44% decrease).
Other teams that saw their odds increase are the Eagles, whose offense exploded in the 2nd half to come back and beat the Jaguars, and the 49ers who pummeled a hapless Cowboys team whose championship hopes seem to have already been intercepted.
Two teams coming off disappointing losses also saw their odds fall. The Bears were a trendy pick prior to the season but a bad home loss to the Bills saw their odds fall from +2500 to +4500. The Patriots (who I highlighted as a good season win total under) were unable to get anything going in the second half against division rival Miami.
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