Oddsmakers Struggling to Keep Up with Duke’s High-Scoring Offense
Duke…everyone’s favorite team! No arguing that. They’re off to an 11-1 start and have the best odds to win the National Championship (+505) at 5Dimes. What you may not have noticed is that their potent offense has caused overs to hit at a historic pace.
At 93.3 points per game, the Blue Devils are scoring just a few points less than the Sacramento Kings. You don’t often see a college team scoring NBA-level points, whether that NBA team sucks or not, but Duke is trying to defy the odds. In all 10 games they’ve played with lines posted, the over has hit. And quite easily, too.
Their games have gone over the total by an average of more than 13 points per game. The public has taken notice too, as all 10 of these games have featured more than 50% of bets on the over and four have even reached 70%.
Is this a good or a bad thing? Well, since they’re outscoring their opponents by more than 18 points on average, it’s good, though I imagine they’d like to limit their opponents to less than 75 points per game.
How have other extreme “over” teams fared historically? Here’s how Duke stacks up with the 10 most profitable “over teams” since the 2005-06 season, per Bet Labs Sports.
| Team | Year | "Over Record" | "Over" Units won | ATS Record | Tourney |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State | 2012-13 | 21-3 | +16.29 | 14-12 (53.8%) | Round of 32 |
| Tulane | 2016-17 | 21-5 | +14.07 | 10-13-3 (43.5%) | N/A |
| California | 2010-11 | 21-7-1 | +12.52 | 16-12-1 (57.1%) | N/A |
| Iowa | 2013-14 | 21-7 (75%) | +12.42 | 15-14 (51.7%) | Lost in First Four |
| VCU | 2006-07 | 20-7 | +12.28 | 14-12-1 (53.8%) | Round of 32 |
| Creighton | 2008-09 | 20-7 | +12.24 | 16-10-1 (61.5%) | N/A |
| California | 2007-08 | 19-6-1 | +12.02 | 14-12 (53.8%) | N/A |
| Villanova | 2011-12 | 20-7 | +11.86 | 6-18-3 (25%) | N/A |
| Seton Hall | 2006-07 | 19-6 | +11.55 | 11-13-1 (45.8%) | N/A |
| LSU | 2016-17 | 21-8 | +11.44 | 11-18 (37.9%) | N/A |
| Duke | 2017-18 | 10-0 (100%) | +9.15 | 7-3 (70%) | ? |
You’ll notice that most of these teams aren’t particularly good. Only three of the 10 made the NCAA Tournament and none of them won more than a game in it. Duke still has plenty of time for unders to hit and there’s no guarantee they’ll make this list, but if they do, they’ll most certainly be the best team on it.
Tonight, Duke hosts Evansville as a 28.5-point favorite. As for the total, 82% of bets and 90% of dollars are on the…
…over! Get right out of town! Despite this betting activity, the total has actually dropped in the past half hour thanks to both steam and reverse line moves hitting the market.
When asked for his opinion on tonight’s game, NCAAB veteran Stuckey believes Evansville’s offensive system may slow down the pace of tonight’s game. “They run a super methodical motion offense that runs through a ton of screens before taking a shot.” However, he also believes Coach K may want to run this team into the ground after coming off a disappointing loss to Boston College.
For the latest lines and percentages, check our free NCAAB odds page.
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