Sharp Money Finally Taking a Side in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
After remaining stagnant for almost a month, the line for tonight’s Tostitos Fiesta Bowl has steadily dropped as sharp money began hitting the market Monday.
As you can see in the line history below, The Greek opened Oregon as a 9-point favorite on December 3rd and did not move that line for four weeks before dropping it to -8.5 on December 31st.
According to our College Football Betting Trends, 66% of spread bets have been placed on Oregon, which is to be expected as the public traditionally likes to back high-scoring teams that are exciting to watch.
The table below breaks this down into more detail, showing the betting action at each of our seven contributing sportsbooks.
| Teams | Sprtsbk | BetUs | Carib | Wager | 5Dimes | SIA | CRIS |
| Kansas St. Oregon |
28% 72% |
36% 64% |
12% 88% |
40% 60% |
45% 55% |
39% 61% |
37% 63% |
Early this week, the line began moving against the betting percentages and has continued to drop from -9 to -7.5 at The Greek. This is an indicator that sharp money (big bets placed by professional bettors or betting syndicates) has come down on Kansas State, causing reverse-line movement.
The line history chart below compares line movement at The Greek to changes in spread betting percentages that have occurred so far this week.
The chart clearly shows that public betting has not fluctuated, but a Steam Move (designated by the icon on 12/31 at 12:00 pm) triggered on Kansas State began the push from 9 to 7.5.
Are you interested in using real time odds and live public betting percentages to track sharp vs. public money on your own?
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What are your thoughts on tonight’s Tostitos Fiesta Bowl? Are you following the sharp money or think the high-flying Ducks will cover the 7.5?
We invite you to leave your analysis in the comments section below.
Chris
01/03/2013 at 1:25 pmI think it’s just a k-state fan boy that move the line Kansas doesn’t really have much when it comes to sports and k-state was ranked #1 earlier this season I would be hyped up too,
But Oregon always @ a high level,they
Have a fast pace offense,they score big, there weakness is on D BUT their back field is pretty good.
My pick- Ducks 1st half
PJ
01/03/2013 at 1:29 pmWhat line did you get for Oregon 1st half?
Chris
01/04/2013 at 11:06 am-4.5 on the 1st Half 220$
Sean
01/03/2013 at 2:15 pmSo far the underdogs have owned the bowls, I think big line for two powerful team with same strengths. I give edge to org to win due to more experience in this situation and possibly more power package. But to cover- Id take points, even buy to 10 finding highest line still around 8.5 or 9.
PJ
01/03/2013 at 2:38 pmThe public books like Bovada and Sports Interaction have this number up to 8.5 right now and it’ll be interesting to see where the late money comes in tonight once everyone gets home and wants to bet the game.
Adam
01/03/2013 at 2:20 pmK State has the #5 (opponent-adjusted) defense in the nation and can stop the run. Oregon also has a sharp defense but they won’t be able to stop Collin Klein. I like K State to win the game outright so I love the points.
I knew SI would love this bet too, love being on the same side as you guys.
PJ
01/03/2013 at 2:43 pmIt’s tough to not take the points when you’re getting a team as good as K State with a Senior quarterback who are playing against a redshirt Freshman like Mariota.
IPC
01/03/2013 at 3:07 pmLooking at strength of schedule I would say K-State has the edge. Another thing to consider is that Oregon has only played one team this year with a better rush D than K-State, Stanford. I also believe K-State wants this win more and Klein comes through big in his bowl game return. Chip Kelly NFL sideshow can’t help ORE but I doubt it has much effect. At +270 I think there is some serious value in the ML. Cannot go wrong taking +8 either. If you can shop and get better good for you. With a nice RLM on top of all that it is definitely time to pound it.
QuietJim
01/03/2013 at 2:38 pmThis game is a good example of why this angle does not win 100% and why square plays win half the time. Speed kills. Love to lay 7 here but 7 1/2 is a gift. Not crazy about Oregon coach trying to jump ship but not really enough time for players to process that info. Should be a good game to watch. Oregon small.
PJ
01/03/2013 at 2:45 pmJim, if this game got to 9, would you like K State there?
QuietJim
01/04/2013 at 9:24 amPASS
Stefan
01/03/2013 at 3:15 pmLook. Based on the comments above, it becomes clear.
Oregon is the favourite.
So why is the line moving against Oregon instead of with it?
S.I. says it’s simple:
100 people each betting $1 on Oregon does not cover 10 people betting $15 each on Kansas St.
Knowing who the public is backing is a huge part of things. If the sharp money was backing the public pick, we’d see the Oregon at -11.5 not reversed to -7.5
If the sharps didn’t know who to pick, we’d see the line as steady eddy.
But the sharps know who to pick and they appear to back Kansas St.
With that said…I say:
If Vegas “pre-paid” a Kansas St. lay-off early in the line…(pre-paid layoffs don’t have to go to the action-favourite, only a line shift needs to be anticipated with intention of middling the layoff and the action)…then they will have bought x amount of Kansas WTS units at +9.5 in anticipation of selling x amount of units at +7.5 in attempts to middle a 8-9 point spread where they’d win the action as well as the layoff. Buy high sell low.
When the simple analysis of the line moving against the public (sharp money), lines up with this idea of satisfying a +7.5 layoff, by an 8-9 point spread, and at the same time not having to pay out the action at +9.5…(a form of a middle)…
Then it’s safe to say that KANSAS ST. covers the early line (+9.5) but possibly not the late line, (+7.5)
So Over +7.5 and they win at least one, maybe both…(layoff and action)
And Under +7.5 and they lose both…(layoff and action)
The latter appears illogical. Not possible. If it were possible, they wouldn’t mess around with the lay-offs. They’d simply manage the vig and call it a day.
I sense clandestine information afoot regarding Kansas St.’s chances to win.
I don’t think they’ll be risking less than a FG meaning +7.5 should still cover.
At +7, I wouldn’t.
At +6.5 I definitely wouldn’t.
Let’s take Kansas St @ +7.5 here and see what happens.
It could be a tight one.
Mike
01/03/2013 at 3:21 pmOregon has too much speed and a coach who the players know is on his way to the pros. They’ll play hard in his last game (they also know they OC is the next coach so there will be no let down). Oregon wins by two TD’s. I love SportsInsights but in this case may be the Sharps betting the line down to get 7. Watch the closing line and you’ll know who they are on not five hours before the game.
PJ
01/03/2013 at 3:23 pmI agree that it’s reasonable to assume some buy-back if it gets down to -7. But do you think the books would be willing to hang that number out there with the majority of public already on Oregon?
Mike
01/03/2013 at 3:40 pmThey have systems that do just that and don’t care about the books line only what line they can get best. Betting KSU down to 7 or 7.5 is fine with them they likely think the game goes over 10 so their bets, along with the public following with them, they win at 7 or 8.5. We’ll see an hour or so before the game where line is and likely know what side they are on. I grabbed 7 -118 is it suddenly goes to 9 before the game I may take some off the table, but I’ve liked Oregon since the lines came out. I waited, guessing public would bet dog, as they have ruled the bowl season. Hope I’m right, GL to all.
Chris
01/04/2013 at 11:13 amConsisstants over Hype, numbers don’t lie.