Thanksgiving Football and Some Mondo Favorites: Week 12 Opening Line Report

Thanksgiving Football and Some Mondo Favorites: Week 12 Opening Line Report

Weekly schedule. Wednesday: get drunk at local bar with high school classmates. Thursday: eat Thanksgiving stuff, watch some mediocre football games, and drink some more. Friday: eat leftover thanksgiving stuff and drink more. Saturday: repeat Friday. Sunday: watch football and recuperate.

* Off board at Bookmaker, lines from Pinnacle

Coming off bye: Panthers, Colts, Jets, 49ers

A couple of Turkey Day spectaculars have interesting storylines…at least from a gambling perspective, that is.

Vikings (7-3 ATS) at Lions (5-4-1 ATS)

Is it time to start respecting Case Keenum? Yes, maybe…no? Well, whatever your thoughts are on the journeyman QB, it’s clear that the books think Minnesota is legit.

After opening at a PK, the line won’t stop moving in Minnesota’s favor. Alright, I lied. It has stopped moving for the past 16 hours or so, but not before the line reached MIN -3.

The Vikings are getting close to 70% of spread bets, but a whopping 91% of dollars, which has helped move that line so much.

Chargers (5-4-1 ATS) at Cowboys (5-5 ATS)

The Cowboys have looked really, really bad without Ezekiel Elliott. However, his absence may not be the most important one that the Cowboys are dealing with.

Dak Prescott

8 games with Tyron Smith: sacked 10 times
2 games without Tyron Smith: sacked 12 times

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) November 20, 2017

Left tackle Tyron Smith has missed the past couple of games and Dak Prescott has been brutalized as a result. Smith is still questionable for Thursday’s game, but I wouldn’t really be comfortable betting on them if he does get ruled out. Given the Cowboys’ performance against the Eagles and the Chargers’ dismantling of the Bills, the line for this game is way off from Westgate’s early line last week.

If we look ahead to Sunday, there are some gargantuan favorites that bettors aren’t shying away from in the early going.

Dolphins (3-5-2 ATS) at Patriots (6-4 ATS)

With Jay Cutler concussed (possibly a good thing for Miami,) the Dolphins QB situation is up in the air. However, I really don’t think it will matter to the spread when they eventually announce the starter.

The Pats opened as a 17 point favorite against their divisional opponent, but have since moved to a mere -16.5 despite 70% of bets. Sharps on Miami?

Bears (5-4-1 ATS) at Eagles (8-2 ATS)

The Eagles have been the most dominant team in the league this season and oddsmakers are expecting another big victory this weekend against da Bears. Their +132 point differential is tops in the league and it’s not that surprising that their 8-2 record against the spread is also a league best.

So far, 82% of bettors are liking the Eagles by a couple of TDs. Historically, favorites of at least 13.5 points have not done that well, going 59-67-3 ATS since 2003.

Packers (4-6 ATS) at Steelers (6-4 ATS)

This could have been one hell of a game. Aaron Rodgers vs. Big Ben, probably two of the top teams of the league. But noooooo. Some linebacker on the Vikings had to go and screw it up. Breaking Rodgers’ collarbone? I don’t know what to do with you kid. (If anyone knows what movie I am referencing, leave it in the comments and maybe you’ll get some free stuff. Not sure I am allowed to give free stuff away, though.)

In the early going, the Steelers are getting over 90% of the money and have moved from -13.5 to -14. Tough to back the Pack after they just got shutout at home, but I guess that’s just where we’re at right now. Turns out that Rodgers, rather than Greg Jennings, carries the team on his back.

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