Think Betting on Kentucky is a Slam Dunk? Think Again…
Since 2004, there have been three NCAA Tournament Championship Games in which one team received greater than 60% of spread bets. In all three instances, the public favorite did not cover the spread.
The following table shows a breakdown of these games:
| Year | Teams | Bet Percentage* |
Closing Line** |
Score |
| 2004 | Connecticut | 38% | -5.5 | 82 |
| Georgia Tech | 62% | 5.5 | 73 | |
| 2008 | Kansas | 35% | +1.5 | 75 |
| Memphis | 65% | -1.5 | 68 | |
| 2011 | Connecticut | 38% | -3 | 53 |
| Butler | 62% | +3 | 41 | |
| 2012 | Kansas | 32% | +6 | n/a |
| Kentucky | 68% | -6 | n/a |
* Betting Percentages represent Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends.
** Closing lines represent spreads from Pinnacle.
As you can see, when the betting public loaded up on one team (which we define as more than 60% of spread bets), the other side covered the spread in each game.
At the time of publication, Kentucky is receiving 68% of spread bets as a 6-point favorite. Considering our betting trends analysis, Kansas is the side you should consider in tonight’s National Championship game.
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