Updated 2016 NBA Playoff Odds
The 2015-16 NBA season is nearing it’s final stretch, and there could be some significant roster shake-up with tomorrow’s trade deadline. Teams like the Cavaliers, Raptors, Warriors, Spurs, Thunder and Clippers have essentially clinched a playoff berth, but there’s still some uncertainty after that top tier.
Earlier this week, 5Dimes posted playoff odds for nineteen teams including 11 from the Eastern Conference and 8 from the Western Conference. After factoring for the juice, we were able to convert these odds into an implied playoff probability.
Right now there are three teams (Memphis, Boston and Atlanta) with at least a 90% chance of making the postseason and six teams (Orlando, Sacramento, Denver, New York, Milwaukee and New Orleans) with at least a 90% chance of entering the draft lottery.
The table below displays the current odds at 5Dimes and will be updated as the season progresses and more information becomes available.
| Team | Make Playoffs | Miss Playoffs | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis Grizzlies | -11000 | +3000 | 98.59% |
| Boston Celtics | -7500 | +2500 | 98.04% |
| Atlanta Hawks | -2750 | +1250 | 96.78% |
| Dallas Mavericks | -900 | +500 | 87.50% |
| Indiana Pacers | -810 | +470 | 86.48% |
| Miami Heat | -750 | +450 | 85.71% |
| Utah Jazz | -365 | +255 | 75.61% |
| Charlotte Hornets | -350 | +250 | 75.00% |
| Chicago Bulls | -260 | +180 | 68.75% |
| Detroit Pistons | -215 | +165 | 65.52% |
| Houston Rockets | -150 | +110 | 56.52% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | -140 | +100 | 54.55% |
| Washington Wizards | +325 | -475 | 20.00% |
| Orlando Magic | +900 | -1850 | 6.78% |
| Sacramento Kings | +900 | -1850 | 6.78% |
| Denver Nuggets | +1100 | -2300 | 5.56% |
| New York Knicks | +1500 | -4500 | 3.23% |
| Milwaukee Bucks | +1500 | -4500 | 3.23% |
| New Orleans Pelicans | +1850 | -5550 | 2.63% |
There’s an interesting opportunity with these playoff odds since the Eastern Conference has nine teams (Cleveland, Toronto, Boston, Atlanta, Indiana, Miami, Charlotte, Detroit and Chicago listed at -215 or higher. That means bettors can find plus money on whichever team they think will get squeezed.
Personally, I think there’s some value on the Pistons missing the playoffs (+165). It’s easy to see the team struggle with chemistry after their recent acquisition of Tobias Harris, and their remaining strength of schedule is among the league’s most difficult.
Another excellent value is Houston missing the playoffs (+110). This team has struggled all season and has reportedly been shopping soon-to-be free agent Dwight Howard. According to basketball reference, the Rockets have a 51.7% chance of missing the playoffs yet bettors are able to get plus money.
Which teams do you think will make the playoffs? Will any darkhorse make a late season playoff push? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.
No Comments