Who Will be the NFL’s Top Scoring Team In 2014-15?
We frequently examine and analyze various proposition bets from offshore sportsbooks, but it’s not every day that we see something truly unique. However, earlier this week BetOnline posted a prop regarding the total points scored for all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming season. For each team there are three options, all with plus money. The actual point totals vary for each team, but the moneylines are the same for the over (+175), a fifty point middle range (+160), and the under (+175).
According to oddsmakers, the top scoring teams are expected to be (in order): Denver, New England and New Orleans followed by a three-team tie between Philadelphia, Seattle and San Francisco. At the other end of the spectrum Oakland, Jacksonville and Cleveland are expected to be the three worst offenses in football followed by a tie between Tampa Bay and the New York Jets.
The table below displays the 2014-15 point totals for each team along with their scoring output from the past season. It will be interesting to see if any additional sportsbooks post this prop bet, but if they do rest assured that we will be quick to add them.
It’s interesting to see that bettors can get +175 on over 495.5 points for the Denver Broncos considering the team scored 606 points last season — a 110.5 point difference. Although they lost WR Eric Decker and RB Knowshon Moreno over the off-season, they added former Steelers receiver Emmanuel Sanders and will hand the reigns over to 2013 2nd-round pick Montee Ball in the backfield. It will be interesting to see if the Broncos offense regresses to the extent that oddsmakers are projecting.
Bettors should also be familiar with the implied betting odds as a +175 moneyline correlates to an implied probability of 36.36% and +160 equates to an implied probability of 38.46%. If you add those three percentages together (38.46 + 36.36 + 36.36) you get 111.18. That works out to a fairly reasonable 11-cent juice which is definitely less than many prop bets.
Do you agree that Denver will once again have the league’s top offense? Are there any bets here that you think are offering value? Please leave any opinions in the comment section below.
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